FXUS62 KCHS 150857 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 340 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001 FORECAST HINGES ON MOVEMENT OF GABRIELLE WHICH ON SATELLITE LOOKS MORE LIKE AN OCCLUDED LOW. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO ONLY BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. SUSPECT THIS SLOW MOVEMENT MAY CONTINUE FOR TODAY BEFORE KICKER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AVIATION MODEL HAS SIMILAR TRACK TO LATEST NHC ADVISORY ALBEIT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. 00Z GFDL HAS FURTHER SOUTH TRACK LIKE AVIATION BUT IS ABOUT A DEGREE LONGITUDE SLOWER WHICH GIVEN LATEST MOVEMENT LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION FOR FORECAST. COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BRINGING IN DRIER COOLER AIRMASS. VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND GABRIELLE. APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY BEFORE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS BACK TO NORTH. WILL NEED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES WITH WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR INLAND ZONES. BUT WILL ALSO NEED TO CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE TODAY. UNTIL WIND DIRECTION DOES TURN A LITTLE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MAKE A RUN AT THE COAST ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN PLACE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR FAR INLAND ZONES. AND THEN WILL JUST HOLD ON TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT. AS GABRIELLE FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AS DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CWF...WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING ALL WATERS...INCLUDING THE CHS HARBOR ON THIS PKG. WILL ALSO DELAY THE DECREASING TREND FOR WIND/SEAS TNGT/SUN. WILL CONTINUE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ALSO. TIDE DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP LAST FEW HRS AND WITH GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWER TODAY...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT THRU MOST OF TODAY AND EVEN INTO THE EVENING FOR SC WATERS. WITH AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS EVE...WILL ONLY NEED JUST OVER A 1 FT DEPARTURE TO ACHIEVE COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA. THUS WILL ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THIS PKG. CHS 75 61 78 60 / 40 20 10 10 SAV 75 62 78 58 / 50 30 10 10 CHL 75 65 77 62 / 40 20 10 10 NBC 75 62 78 62 / 40 20 10 10 RBW 76 57 80 55 / 20 10 10 10 .CHS... GA...GALE WARNING AMZ354-374 HEAVY SURF ADVISORY AMZ354-374 COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AMZ354-374-GAZ117-119-139-141 WIND ADVISORY GAZ101-116>119-137>141. SC...GALE WARNING AMZ330-350-352 HEAVY SURF ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352 COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AMZ330-350-352-SCZ047>050 WIND ADVISORY SCZ047>050 LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE.