483 
FXUS65 KTFX 142102
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MDT FRI SEP 14 2001

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM DETAILS. BROAD
UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT UPPER TROF EAST AND THEN DEVELOP A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA EARLY SATURDAY. CWA REMAINS UNDER
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE UPWARD MOTION AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL GO WITH VERY LOW POPS FOR
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CWA SATURDAY AS MODELS HINT AT SOME
INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MONTANA. EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING AGAIN ON SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS INDICATES PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR GIVEN THE
HUMIDITIES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK
FAIRLY STATIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. EMANUEL

EXTENDED...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON TUESDAY...
BEFORE AMPLIFYING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION IS THE PUSH FROM THE NORTH PROGGED BY THE MRF TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH TO MERIT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF
PRECIP DOES OCCUR...SNOW LEVELS APPEAR CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS RIGHT NOW. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DEVELOPS MUCH COLDER AIR IN
CANADA PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...SO SITUATION BEARS MONITORING. WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS MRF USUALLY FAILS IN KEEPING COLD
AIR MASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ROCKIES. POMEROY

CCF NUMBERS
GTF BU 044/072 045/072 042 08000
   BBEEU 070/043 073/043 065/040 062/038 067 00000022330
CTB BU 040/071 038/070 038 08000
   BEEEU 070/041 071/042 065/039 059/036 063 00000022330
HLN BB 050/075 047/075 046 08011
   BBEEU 073/044 074/044 072/041 067/038 070 00100022330
BZN BB 044/072 043/073 037 08011
   BBEEU 072/042 069/040 069/038 068/035 065 10112222220
WEY BB 037/070 036/071 037 08011
   BEEEU 070/034 064/030 062/030 059/030 060 11112222220
DLN BB 045/072 044/073 042 08010
   BEEEU 071/042 069/040 069/038 068/035 065 00112222220
HVR BU 044/075 043/075 041 08000
   BEEEU 072/044 076/044 069/041 062/038 065 00000023330
LWT BB 045/068 044/070 042 08111
   BBEEU 070/040 070/040 063/038 060/036 065 00100023330