293 
FXUS63 KILX 141957
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2001

ETA MODEL LOOKS TO BE HANDLING PATTERN BEST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH 
NEW AVN BEYOND THAT USED VERSES MRF. PROBLEM IN THIS FORECAST WILL 
BE MID AND HIGH CLOUD AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT TO STREAM INTO AREA AHEAD OF 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW. MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER AND MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS 
STAY DRY AND WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE STALLED 
FRONT FROM IA TO EASTERN MO TO KY...SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH EASTWARD 
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN IA.  WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS 
TONIGHT A BIT IN THE WEST DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...BUT KEEP CURRENT 
LOW TEMPS AS IS IN THE EAST. 

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PROBLEM IS THE PCPN. NEW AVN MODEL BRINGS 
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A BIT FASTER THAT MRF. LOOKS GOOD WITH THE 
ETA AND SO WILL GO WITH IT. PCPN WILL MOST LIKELY COME IN ON MONDAY 
NIGHT...TO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THE FINE TUNING OF THE 
TIMING TO FUTURE FORECASTERS WHEN IT GETS A BIT CLOSER. 

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI BB 048/068 050/072 053 11111
PIA BB 048/066 050/071 052 11111
DEC BB 048/068 050/072 053 11111
CMI BB 046/067 048/072 052 11-11
MTO BB 046/067 048/072 052 11-11
LWV BB 047/070 049/073 053 110--

.ILX...NONE.

$$

GOETSCH