447 
FXUS62 KILM 141908 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED CWF/PRELIM NUMBERS 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001

COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER THIS AFTN. THIS 
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF 
COOLER DRIER AIR. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRAD 
SIGNIFICANTLY AS HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE N AND BUTTS UP AGAINST 
GABRIELLE OVER FL. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOL SHRAS TONIGHT WITH 
FROPA.

BIG QUESTION REMAINS GABRIELLE. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO 
DIVERGE WIDELY WITH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS... 

- 12Z ETA TAKES STORM OFF DAYTONA...THEN SE TOWARD NORTHERN BAHAMAS
- 12Z NGM MOVES STORM SLOWLY NE AND MERGES IT WITH FRONTAL BAND
- 12Z AVN CONTINUES MOVING STORM NE AND ACCELERATES IT SUNDAY        
  MORNING...MISSING THE CAROLINA COAST BY OVER 200 MILES.

HURRICANE MODELS (BAM/GFDL/LBAR) HAVE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEM 
TOO...ALL GENERALLY NEAR THE AVN TRACK BUT AT VASTLY DIFFERENT 
SPEEDS. THINKING IS TO USE THE AVN SOLUTION AS A GUIDE...20-30ISH 
POPS NEAR THE COAST WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DRY AND 
BREEZY INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL TIGHTEN DIURNAL RANGES AND 
GO WITH MAV MAXES AND FWC MINS. LBT AND ESPECIALLY FLO WILL BE FAR 
ENOUGH AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE THAT BLEND OF FWC/MAV MAY BE 
BETTER THERE.

AFTER GABRIELLE...LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY DRY WX WITH NEXT FROPA COMING 
UP LATE IN THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN 12-14 C AND WITH FULL 
SUNSHINE MEX/FMR TEMPS ARE STILL MAYBE A LITTLE TOO WARM. MRF 
INDICATES MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WELL BEFORE FROPA SO THU 
COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.

CWF: TONIGHT COLD FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SEAS. ADVISORY/HEADLINE STRUCTURE WILL 
DEPEND ON WHETHER GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ARE 
ATTRIBUTED TO GABRIELLE...OR TO GRADIENT WIND WITH LARGE HIGH TO THE 
N. ALSO WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FROM MYR 
SOUTH WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES COUPLED WITH STRONG ONSHORE 
WINDS. WILL ISSUE STATEMENTS AND HEADLINE PRODUCTS AFTER FURTHER 
INVESTIGATION.

FCSTID = 9
ILM   62  75  62  76 /  10  20  30  20
LBT   58  75  56  76 /  10  10  10  10
FLO   60  75  57  76 /  10  10  10  10
MYR   64  75  62  75 /  10  20  30  20

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

TRA