790 
FXUS63 KICT 140840
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2001

WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING UPR LOW SPINNING OVER ERN OR WHILE UPR 
TROF DROPS S/SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH TO TEAM IN EJECTING WDSPRD 
CS E OVER CWA TODAY WITH CIFRM VEIL THICKENING AS DAY PROGRESSES. 
COUPLED WITH SE SFC-850MB FLOW INDUCED BY LARGE HIGH COVERING GREAT 
LAKES & SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR CO/KS BDR, COOLER TEMPS TO RESULT ALL 
AREAS, IN SOME CASES BY AS MUCH AS 6-8F. PER POSITIONING OF SFC LOW 
ALONG FRONT RANGE & LARGE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH QSTNRY FRONT DRAPED FM
SW NEBRASKA ACRS NRN KS TO ERN KS TO REMAIN AS SUCH TODAY THUS KEEP- 
ING BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TS IN NEBRASKA. PER CORFIDI VECTORS A FEW SHRA
MAY VENTURE INTO CNTRL KS TODAY WITH BETTER SHOT FOR SHRA/TS TNGT IN 
BOTH CNTRL & SC KS.

TODAY:
LACK OF LOW-LVL FOCUS PRECLUDES MENTION OF PCPN ALL BUT CNTRL KS 
WHERE 30% POP SHOULD SUFFICE. EXTENSIVE CS/AS COUPLED WITH SE FLOW TO
LIMIT MAXES TO ARND 80F.

TNGT:
WITH LARGE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH BLDG S TOWARD OH VALLEY, QSTNRY FRONT
TO SLGTLY BACKDOOR THUS PROVIDING BETTER LWR-LVL FOCUS FOR SHRA/TS. 
AM RUNNING 30-40% POPS ALL AREAS. GRADUALLY MOISTENING SLY COMP DIC- 
TATES RUNNING MINS IN LWR-MID 60S ALL AREAS WITH SC KS ON WARMER END
OF RANGE.

SAT:
BEHAVIOR OF ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY 
AS TEMPS NO DOUBT HINGE ON ITS POSITIONING. APRS FRONT WL CONT TO 
BACKDOOR SLOWLY AS ETA & NGM SUGGEST. GIVEN POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH 
THIS SCENARIO MAKES SENSE WHICH WOULD ORIENT TEMP GRAD IN SW-NE 
MANNER WITH SC KS WARMEST & NE CORRIDOR COOLEST. FAN & FWC IN HUGE 
DISAGREEMENT ACRS BOTH CNTRL & SC KS WITH LATTER MUCH WARMER BY SOME 
15-18F. FOR NOW WL FOLLOW MUCH WARMER FWC SOLN SC (UPR 70S/NEAR 80F) 
WITH BIAS TOWARD MUCH COOLER MAV SOLN ALG NE CORRIDOR (ARND 70F). 
WITH UPR-LVL DIV GRADUALLY INCRG WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE POP ANTE TO 
60%. HWVR, THIS BEING 3RD PD WL HOLD @ 40% ALL AREAS & RE-EVALUATE 
TMW NGT.

COORD: DDC, TOP.

FCSTID = 4
ICT   82  65  79  63 /   0  40  40  40
HUT   81  63  79  63 /   0  40  40  40
EWK   81  64  76  61 /   0  40  40  40
EQA   81  64  76  62 /   0  40  40  40
WLD   83  65  79  63 /   0  40  40  40
RSL   81  62  73  58 /  30  40  40  40
GBD   82  63  74  58 /  30  40  40  40
SLN   80  63  70  58 /  30  40  40  40
MPR   81  64  73  60 /  30  40  40  40
CFV   83  63  77  60 /   0  30  40  40
CNU   82  62  75  60 /   0  30  40  40
K88   80  61  74  60 /   0  30  40  40

.ICT...NONE.