142 
FXUS63 KLMK 140744
AFDSDF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED TROF IN THE NORTHEAST 
HALF OF THE U.S. DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. AHEAD OF 
THIS TROF A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. THESE SHOWERS 
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH SOME 
AID FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND GOOD
DIFFERENTIAL PVA. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIVE 
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
SHIFTS IN FROM THE MID LEVELS. FOR THIS MORNING...WE WILL GO WITH 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT AS THE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN THE THINGS 
SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT 
COOLER TODAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 850MB TEMPS COOLING 
OFF ABOUT 8 DEG C FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL FOLLOW 
CLOSEST TO FWC NUMBERS. WE BUMPED UP WINDS QUITE A BIT TODAY AS THE 
GRADIENT SHARPENS UP DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF. 

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE 
ATLANTIC AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BUILD 
INTO THE CWFA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
AND QUITE COOL CONDITIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION RESIDES ON WHETHER OR 
NOT WE WILL DECOUPLE. SINCE THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SOUTHWARD 
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH TONIGHT WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 
FWC NUMBERS AGAIN...BUT IF WE DO DECOUPLE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO 
FAN NUMBERS.   

SATURDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE 
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RISE IN THE TEMPERATURES. WE 
MAY SEE A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE INTO OUR 
CWFA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE WOULD EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD 
DAY.   
 
 
.SDF...NONE.
COX