885 
FXUS61 KBTV 280515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001

CRNT: MAINLY SKC ACRS FA WITH SOME MID CLDS APPRCHG ST LWRNC VLY
AND AREAS OF FOG ACRS FA. STG S/W ROTATING ACRS NRN GRT LAKES IS
PUSHING A SFC CD FNT ACRS GRT LAKES AS WELL AS SUPPORTING LOTS OF
-TSRA.

SHORT TERM: THIS TREND WL CONT ACRS FA AS WELL TDY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING PROVIDING ADDTNL LLVL INSTABILITY AND SFC FNT MVG ACRS FA
EXITING BY 00Z WITH ULVL S/W ACRS CHMPL VLY BY 00Z WED. THUS ACTVTY
SHLD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PRVS FCSTS INDICATED AND WL BUMP POPS
INTO LKLY FOR MUCH OF FA. SPC HAS PLACED ESSENTIALLY ALL OF FA INTO
SLGT RISK AS THE FOLLOWING COMES TOGETHER: CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 7-9K FT. WK TO MODERATE LOW AND MID-LVL
SHEAR (10-15 M/S 0-3KM AND 15-20 M/S 0-6KM) WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 6.5 DEG C/KM AND MID LVL WNDS OF >30 AND >40 KTS AT H7/H5
RESPECTIVELY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LLVLS WARM AS CLD COVER
APPROACHES DRG THE MRNG/ERLY AFTN...BEST BET WUD BE SRN/ERN VT.

LONGER TERM: COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH SFC HIGH MVG ACRS FA TNGT/WED
FOR A SPLENDID WED THEN SFC HIGH MVS OFFSHORE THU FOR A RETURN FLOW
AND SLGT MODERATION IN TMPS BUT DRY.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF S/W DROP INTO DVLPG MEAN TROF ACRS
ONTARIO/NRN GRT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW MVG E ACRS QUEBEC AND DRAGGING
A SFC CD FNT ACRS QUEBEC INTO FA DRG FRI/FRI NGT WITH CHC -SHRA.
AVN SHOWS ANTHR S/W DIGGING INTO BASE OF LW TROF ALLOWING FOR MORE
BACKING FLOW AND A PSBL SLOW DOWN OF FNT ACRS FA FRI NGT/SAT...THUS
WL KEEP CHC -SHRA THAT IS IN CRNT XNTD.

COOL...CNDN HIGH MVS INTO FA FOR LTR HLF OF HOLIDAY WKND FOR A
FALL-ISH...FAIR-ISH FEELING BUT DRY.

NO CHGS TO XNTD.

WORKS AVBL SHORTLY.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW