518 
FXUS64 KSJT 152002
AFDSJT
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2001

LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATING NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION 
DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SURFACE METAR SHOWING 
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...WITH UPPER 50S 
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE LAMP STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES BEST LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWFA.

SHORT-TERM...MESO ETA HOLDS NVA OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT. THEN...PVA BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AS UPPER 
TROF DEEPENS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HEATING 
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL GIVE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE 
BIG COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND. 
APPEARS AVN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. THUS...WILL GO WITH NUMBERS 
CLOSER TO NGM FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD 
PERIODS...WILL GO WITH NUMBERS ABOVE NGM GUIDANCE AS BEST PVA OCCURS 
DURING THOSE TIMES. FOR FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE ALL 
ZONES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS INTO 
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA. MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN 1000 TO 500 
THICKNESS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASED 
POPS ON THURSDAY...WILL GIVE LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW WITH A 
REBOUND ON FRIDAY. 

EXTENDED...MRF SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE 
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. THUS...WILL 
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE ZONES. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS 
CONTINUE.

ABI 074/088/070/093  20/40/20/20
SJT 072/093/068/095  20/40/20/20
JCT 073/095/070/096  10/30/20/20

.SJT...NONE.


23/HUBER