FXUS63 KFSD 151641
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 
1020 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2001

CONFUSED PATTERN IN WAKE OF LARGE SCALE RAIN LATE NIGHT ACRS FAR 
SERN SD AND NW IA.  MAIN PLAYER TODAY WOULD SEEM TO BE SIGNIFICANT 
TROUGH DIGGING IN ON WV THRU ND INTO MN.  BAND OF ELEVATED TSRA
SLIDING THRU ERN SD ATTM TIED TO SOME MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 
TWO WAVES...WHICH SHIFTS SE ACRS CWA DURG AFTN. SEEMS BEST OF LIFT 
IS WITH THIS FEATURE... BUT QUESTION IS WILL FRONT BE ABLE TO 
ACTIVATE IN WAKE.  PROB AGAIN TODAY WILL BE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF 
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE SEVERELY LIMTED BY RAIN COOLED CLOUD MASS. 
BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG MAIN FRONT WOULD 
SEEM TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  ETA HAS DESTABILIZATION...
BUT ALSO IS WAY TOO WARM WITH LOW LVL TMPS...AND SEEMS NOTHING IS
STOPPING CONVECTION FM GOING ALFT AND WORKING OVER AIRMASS AS WELL.
WL REMOVE THREAT FM SWRN CWA...BUT SOMEWHAT NERVOUS AS WELL...AS 
THIS IS FARTHEST REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING...BUT WILL BE BEST 
DESTABILIZED AS BOUNDARY DROPS ACRS DURING AFTN. RAISED TMPS IN
BETTER MIXED W AND N...AND LOWERED A TOUCH SE FOR CLDS. UPDATS 
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

.FSD...NONE
CHAPMAN