295 
FXUS65 KVEF 151001
AFDLAS
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT WED AUG 15 2001

SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER TO MOST OF THE 
REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA 
WHERE ENOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY FOR A 
CONTINUED THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL STAY TO THE WEST OF 
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH 
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE IN 
HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES.

WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE ETA AGAIN IS HANDLING THE 
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY THE BEST. EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO 
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE 
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S AT KINGMAN AND NEEDLES. WITH 
POSITION OF UPPER HIGH STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST SO STORMS 
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COCONINO/YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN 
ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO HIGHER CAPE/THETA VALUES IN SRN 
MOHAVE COUNTY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY 
RAIN ONCE AGAIN THREAT FROM STORMS. COORDINATED WITH SPC ON THE 
ARIZONA CALL AND THEY WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SRN 
ARIZONA WHICH WILL INCLUDE A PORTION OF SRN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE 
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF NEEDLES. WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT 
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL. ON THURSDAY...ETA STILL SHOWS ENOUGH 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXTREME SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY TO INCLUDE 
A SLIGHT CHANCE...ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW IS NOT AS FAVORABLE TO 
BRING STORMS WEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA.

FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT 
EAST OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY DAY 5 OR 6. 00Z AVN 
INCREASES THE MOISTURE AND ROTATES A DISTURBANCE UP FROM THE SOUTH 
ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH SUNDAY. THIS NOW A DAY QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS 
MRF AND STILL SLIGHTLY FAST THAN THE CURRENT MRF SOLUTION. FOR THE 
TIME BEING WILL MAKE NOT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...DAYSHIFT MAY HAVE 
TO MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS IF 12Z AVN REMAINS 
CONSISTENT. PIERCE              


.LAS...NONE.