238 
FXUS65 KMSO 132002
AFDMSO

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
200 PM MDT MON AUG 13 2001

.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA WITH THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AND BASED ON
INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER IDAHO ON TUESDAY WITH
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GENERAL INSTABILITY NOTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS
SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW AND BREAKDOWN OF THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AS
THERMAL TROUGH AND RIDGE RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES.  BELTZ

.EXTENDED...RIDGE LINE ALOFT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
FOR DRY CONDITIONS...BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OVER CENTRAL MT FRIDAY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS AND THE WARMEST DAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...THE OFFSHORE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH BEST INSTABILITY BEING TO
THE SOUTH OVER LEMHI AND SILVER BOW COUNTIES. FELSCH

.MSO...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND
       LOW HUMIDITIES ALL FIRE ZONES 102 THROUGH 111.