719 
FXUS64 KOHX 131926
AFDBNA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2001

WELL...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE TAIL END OF THE DEW POINT
FRONT FROM COOKEVILLE TO SHELBYVILLE TO SRN LINCOLN COUNTY.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO AL/GA AND FINALLY PUT AN END TO THE EFFECTS
OF THIS PESKY FRONT. BULGE OF DRIER DEW POINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KY
WILL DROP INTO PORTLAND...WESTMORELAND AND LAFAYETTE..WHILE MORE
HUMID AIR OVER WESTERN KY WILL CREATE A WIDER RANGE OF TEMPS
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MESA VERDE NATIONAL
PARK CO TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. VIGOROUS H5 LOW OVER ERN HUDSON BAY
IS LIFTING NEWD. FROM THIS H5 LOW EXTENDS LONG TROUGH FROM GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

CLEARLY THE AVN DID THE SUPERIOR JOB OVER THE WEEKEND INTO TODAY. IT
HELD BACK THE MOISTURE AND THE FRONT THE LONGEST AND WAS VERITABLE.
ALL 3 MODELS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOUR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK MI WILL PUSH E-SE AND
BRING A RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT FOR MID AUGUST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ON THE PLATEAU AND THE
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS.

CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL PUSH INTO OUR NWRN AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

WITH ALL THE PRECIP WEVE HAD FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL ONCE
AGAIN ADD THE PATCHY FOG WORDING.  LOOKS LIKE THE WORST FOG WILL BE
FROM MURFREESBORO TO LEWISBURG TO SHELBYVILLE TO TULLAHOMA TO
WINCHESTER TO SEWANEE.

WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO HAVE AN EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE WORDING FOR
THE BOTTOM 3 OR 4 COUNTIES IN THE SRN PLATEAU GROUP AT PRESS TIME.

LAST BIT OF INFO IS CONVECTION BETWEEN HUF AND SPI ASSOCIATED WITH
H3 JET STREAK.  ETA ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THIS...BUT TAKES IT MORE
TO E-SE AND SHOULD BOTHER KY AND PERHAPS FAR ERN TN LATE TOMORROW...
BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

COORDINATED WITH SDF AND PAH

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY

BNA UU 067/086 061/089  0000
CSV UU 063/084 057/086  0000

.BNA...NONE.
JDG