872 
FXUS62 KMLB 031335
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2001

WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS DROPPING 
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTH FLORIDA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING 
EVIDENCE OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT FLOW 
EXTENDING FROM WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TO NEAR THE VOLUSIA 
COAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE 
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH.  ALSO SUPPORTING THIS AREA OF 
CONVECTION WAS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET NORTHEAST 
OF THE AREA.

TRICKY FORECAST TODAY WITH SATURATED ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING BUT UPPER 
LEVEL FORCING DIMINISHING AS TROUGH DROPS SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA 
AND JET DIVERGENCE LIFTS OUT.  PLAN ON THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS... 
SOME SLIGHT SUNSHINE/HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL 
STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LIKELY POPS.  

LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AS TS BARRY DRIFTS 
SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA.  A FEW CELLS MAY SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS OVER 
THE COASTAL WATERS AS THEY MOVE NORTH.  SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE 
ACROSS LAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING OCCURS...BUT EXPECT 
THAT MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE ADDITIONAL FLOODING...SINCE IT WILL 
TAKE LITTLE TO AGGRAVATE PROBLEMS IN THE SOUTH.

LITTLE CHANGE PLANNED.

MARINE...RATHER LARGE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WINDS WERE AROUND 15 
KNOTS WITH SEAS ABOUT 5 FEET NEAR SHORE...A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS.  DO NOT INTEND TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST.

.MLB...FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR MARTIN...ST LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE AND
       INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER