000 FXUS64 KMOB 262020 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 250 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2001 THE SKY HAS BEEN BRIGHTENING AND THEN DARKENING AS THIS AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THE RAIN HAS STOPPED AND THUS DECIDED TO TAKE A QUICK STROLL OUTSIDE. SKY WAS STILL OVC WITH THICK CI THEN LATER INFLUX OF NS/SC FROM THE SOUTH WITH A RETREATING NS/AS SHIELD AS A BACKDROP. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT CLOUDS TO KEEP OBSVD TEMP IN LINE WITH FCST. LOOKS LIKE THIS FCST IS ON TRACK. IR IMAGERY SHOWS AS WELL THAT THE MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WE SAW DOMINATE THE WX THIS MORNING CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS LOOKS RATHER TOO HIGH SO PLANNING ON SHAVING ABOUT 10 OR 20 PERCENT OFF EACH MODEL POP. THE SYSTEM HAS LIFTED OUT AND A RETURN TO THE SEABREEZE REGIME DOES NOT WARRANT LIKELY POPS BUT ANECEDENT MOISTURE FROM LAST FEW DAYS WOULD BRING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION UP SOME. THIS WOULD WARRANT HIGHER THAN 30 OR 40...SO GOOD CHANCE FOR COAST...LEAVING NE ZONES ABOUT 30 OR 40 AND LEAVING GUIDANCE IN FOR MS/NW AL. MODELS DID PRETTY WELL FOR TAU 48 AND EVEN THE MRF DID ALL RIGHT FOR TAU 168...AT LEAST DOWN HERE IN THE LOW LATITUDES. 850 FLOW PER CHARTS THIS MORNING INDCD MAIN MOISTURE AXIS LAY WEST OF HERE THRU LA/MS WITH SURFACE TROF PROGRESSING ALG WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH THRU MID STATE MS/AL. EXTENDED...ONSHORE WIND CONTINUES THROUGH MON AS HIGH CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES FAVORING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION. 500 TROF TO INTENSIFY OVER EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PINCH OFF OVER THE PIEDMONT AS WK TROF EVENTUALLY STALLS NEARBY. CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK TO FOLLOW. MARINE WEATHER...WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA ARE LAYING DOWN SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRES TROF WEAKENS AND LIFTS NW...AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST...EXPECT PRIMARILY A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS FCST PERIOD. WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE MARINE AIRMASS CONTINUES...BUT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCEC/SCA CRITERIA THIS PERIOD. NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS THE ENTIRE AREA HAS RECEIVED RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...OVER PAST 36 HOURS. GROUND IS WET AND HUMIDITIES HIGH. NO HIGHLIGHTS. PRELIM CCF... MOB BE 073/087 073/088 074 77251 PNS BE 076/086 076/088 076 77241 DTS BE 075/088 075/090 075 77241 GZH BE 073/088 072/089 072 77231 2R0 BE 073/088 072/091 073 77652 61A BE 073/089 072/091 073 77432 77 & 12 .MOB... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE.