000 
FXUS64 KOHX 181209
AFDBNA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
707 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2001

WELL...JUST SENT OUT AN ZONE UPDATE TO ADDRESS MORNING PRECIP. SINCE
THE LAST AFD...CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG ACROSS SERN IL/SW IN
AND WRN KY AND MOVING S-SE. PRECIP IS DEFINITELY CATEGORICAL EAST OF
I 65...SO HAVE HIGH POPS OVER THE NRN PLATEAU...AND WENT SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FAR SW AND THE SERN PLATEAU.

GLEANING AT THE MORNING BALLOON SOUNDING...IT HAS 25-27 KTS FROM 900
FEET TO 4000 FEET. WITH SUFFICIENT INFLOW AND 2 OR 3 BOUNDARIES OVER
IL/KY...SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHEN THE SUN
GETS THINGS GOING.

NEW NCEP DAY 1 HAS INCREASED THE QPF nAMOUNTS FROM IL/KY INTO MIDDLE
TN FOR TONIGHT. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE "RIDING THE
RIDGE".

.BNA...NONE.

JDG