000 
FXUS64 KLZK 130835
AFDLIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 
335 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS: RAINFALL TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES

LATEST MSAS DATA SHOWS FRONTAL BNDRY RUNNING W-CNTRL AND INTO SERN 
AR. ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRED EARLIER THU EVENING N OF THE BNDRY 
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DROPPING SWD OUT OF MO. AFTER COORDINATING 
WITH SPC...WITH LET WATCH #549 EXPIRE AT 4 AM WITH NO PLANS TO 
REISSUE ATTM. APPEARS MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAIN ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SVR STORM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD. 
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ETA/MESOETA SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST. EXPECT 
ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE 
WEAKENING AS LOW LVL INFLOW DECREASES AND UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS SEWD. 
SFC BNDRY WILL DRIFT SWD TODAY...PROVIDING FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA 
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY.

WILL ASSESS RADAR TRENDS PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE AS FAR AS POPS GO 
TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND 
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAINFALL. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER SWRN AR 
AHEAD OF FRONT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NERN TX/SWRN LA TONIGHT AND SAT. 
COULD STILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL OVER FAR SWRN AR TNGT DUE 
TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO 
MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SAT ON E AND NELY WINDS.

DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SWD 
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BOTH NGM AND AVN MOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A BLEND OF BOTH FOR 
TEMPS ALL PERIODS.

IN THE EXTENDED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN RETURNING BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  ..44..

.LIT...NONE.