463 
FXUS63 KTOP 011930
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES IN THE 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

19Z MSAS DATA SHOWED BEST SUPPORT FOR NEW CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED 
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.  STILL SOME CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALONG THE 
NEBRASKA BORDER WITH LIFT INDICES AROUND -6.  PROFILERS SUGGEST ANY 
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WOULD DRIFT SLOWLY 
SOUTHWARD.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 
OVERNIGHT.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING 
THE DAY.  BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE TO THE 
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.  Q-VECTORS ALSO SHOW LITTLE UPPER 
SUPPORT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS.  FOR NOW...WILL ELECT TO GO DRY 
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG WARMING SEEN ON THE FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS...FAVOR THE WARMER FWC/NGM GUIDANCE OVER THE COOLER AVN 
BASED GUIDANCE.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A WEAK 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO NORTHERN KANSAS.  ETA SHOWS DECENT 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT SEEN 
IN THE Q-VECTOR FIELDS.  CAPES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 2000 J/KG 
WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH 
OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY 
NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL...AND 
ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE WARMER NGM/FWC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

.TOP...NONE.

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