000 
FXUS63 KAPX 011531
AFDAPN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 AM EDT SUN JUL 01 2001

AFTERNOON CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD/TEMPERATURE/WIND FORECAST...IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

850 MB THERMAL TROUGH AT 12Z -- WITH TEMPS OF 0 TO -2C -- WAS 
PUSHING SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER 
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE MID 60S (AROUND 17C)...LAKE CLOUDS 
HAVE FORMED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND ARE STREAMING INTO NW 
LOWER -- PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. OVER E UPPER...WHERE 
UPSTREAM LAKE SUPERIOR WATER TEMPS ARE COLDER...CLOUDS OVER LAND 
HAVE BEEN MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXIST 
OVER E UPPER AND NW LOWER. MODEL SOUNDINGS -- WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY 
12Z APX SOUNDING -- SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION 
FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS WHICH...TOGETHER WITH THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION... 
WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY OVER E UPPER AND NW LOWER. ACROSS NE 
LOWER...FROM APN SOUTH TO GLADWIN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NW 
WINDS DOWNSLOPING INTO SE PARTS OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD ESPECIALLY 
HELP LIMIT CLOUD COVER OVER GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO "WARM" MUCH THIS MORNING -- WITH 
UPPER 40S IN E UPPER AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS N LOWER 
(STILL 48F AT 1125 AM HERE AT APX). MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERMAL 
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH QUICKLY TODAY...WITH SOME 925/850 MB 
WARMING NOTED BY 21Z. AS A RESULT...SOME MINOR RECOVERY WILL LIKELY 
OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING THROUGH 850 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR 
55 IN E UPPER...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN N LOWER. 
 
LASTLY...HAVE BUMPED WINDS HIGHER EVERYWHERE. OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 
25-35 KT MPH RANGE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EXCELLENT VERTICAL 
MIXING IN CAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT STEADY/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THOSE PRESENTLY OBSERVED.

.APX...NONE.

SMITH