000 
FXUS65 KABQ 010933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2001

CENTER OF RIDGE NEAR 4 CORNERS AND ON AVERAGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN POSITION OVER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE HI BUT COULD BE THAT THESE MAY NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT
ON CONVECTION ENHANCEMENT...BUT NEED SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT. ONE
IS EXITING THE FAR SW AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR SHOWS YET ANOTHER
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN NV AND MODELS MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TODAY...THIS AND STEERING WINDS BRINGS
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TO NE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. POSSIBLY MORE
IMPORTANT IS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST WITH SURFACE HI
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS MAY (?) BRING A
WINDSHIFT TO THE NE AND E TONIGHT. AT ANY RATE THIS ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL COOLING HEADED INTO THE N AND BEST MODELED LI'S POINTS TO
N AS FAVORED THUNDERSTORM AREA TODAY AND MONDAY...WILL TREND POPS
AS SUCH. IN LONGER RANGE STILL APPEARS THAT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM E TX TODAY AND S OF NM LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY AS
THE HI DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. STILL UNSURE IF THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS FROM PUBLISHED FORECAST.


ABQ BB 094/066 094/066 092 29232
SAF BB 089/060 089/060 089 29332
TCC BB 095/068 092/068 090 29011

.ABQ...NONE.