000 
FXUS61 KRLX 230722
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
318 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2001

MAIN PROBLEM THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS CHANCES OF PCPN ASSOCIATED 
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF...WHICH SHOULD BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR OR 
OVER OUR REGION LATER ON THIS WEEKEND. 

OPEN WAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VA ATTM...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT AREA OF PCPN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO 
PULL NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING...AS WE LOSE BETTER DYNAMICS. 
WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN A.M. CHANCE POP IN NORTH CENTRAL WV AND WV 
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...REMAINDER OF OUR AREA SHOULD DRY OUT FROM 
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PRIOR TO 12Z.  OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY AND 
TONIGHT WE SHOULD DRY OUT SOME. WITH UPPER TROF MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD 
COULD STILL HAVE ISOLATED PCPN...SO PLAN ON GOING WITH A SILENT 20 
POP. 

ON SUNDAY WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS IN MOUNTAIN AND FAR SOUTHERN 
COUNTIES...WHERE AVN AND ETA INDICATE GREATER MOISTURE UNDER UPPER 
LOW. ELSEWHERE CAP IN MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT PCPN.

EXTENDED...DURING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW 
BECOMES QUITE PROMINENT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. A 
WARMING TREND IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DAYTIME 
INSTABILITY AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES. WHILE MAINLY DIURNAL PCPN IS 
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS...CAN NOT 
RULE OUT SOME NIGHTTIME PCPN TOO WITH SHORT WAVES. 

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN FWC HIGHS TODAYV AND SUNDAY...CLOSER TO MEX. 
FWC LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END/NMB