000 
FXUS63 KILX 071923
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE EXTENT OF LOW-LVL MSTR IN THE SHORT TERM 
AND PCPN CHCS INTO THE EXTENDED.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CWA SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEAKENING LOW 
PRESSURE IN EASTERN IA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER. WEAK 
S/W MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. NO 
PCPN OF CONSEQUENCE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IA LOW AND S/W. VIS SAT 
TRENDS EVEN SHOWED COVERAGE OF CU/SC DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
CWA...BACK INTO IOWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE STILL QUITE 
HIGH...WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...TO AROUND 70 AROUND 
LWV. 

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE 
AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN AT THE LOW-LVLS 
INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF GOOD 
SUNSHINE AND WIND TO DRY OUT THE AREA AFTER ALL THE RAINFALL THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...SEE NO REASON 
WHY PATCHY FOG WON/T REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WITH 
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN 
AND DRIER AIR SETTLING IN...SEE NO REASON WHY AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY 
SKIES WON/T DOMINATE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO LATE 
SATURDAY...WHEN SW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING THE MORE TROPICAL 
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED.

LOOKS OVERALL LIKE A WET EXTENDED PERIOD FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AVN 
STALLS A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THETA 
E RIDGE...GOOD CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR AN MCS. 
CURRENT FCST HAD DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO BLEND 
WITH SUNDAY AND BRING CHC POPS IN AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT IN 
LATER FORECASTS AS HIGH PW/S WITH SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN MORE 
FLOODING PROBLEMS NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAVE TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT 
MRF HINTS AT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE WEDS INTACT...BUT DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY 
AS FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM EACH OTHER...BUT THINK WITH NO 
MAJOR COOL AIR MOVING IN AND PERSISTENT DEWPOINTS...WILL GO A BIT 
WARMER THAN NUMBERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND FOLLOW PRETTY 
CLOSE FOR FRIDAY.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI BB 061/078 059/080 063 26210
PIA BB 058/077 057/079 060 26210
DEC BB 059/078 058/080 061 26210
CMI BB 058/076 057/079 061 26210
MTO BB 060/078 059/081 063 26210
LWV BB 063/080 061/082 065 26210

.ILX...NONE.

$$
FISHER/PLAHMER