000 
FXUS64 KMRX 071855
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE IS WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS RAPID DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT.
MY DECISION WAS TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MESO-ETA...WHICH
SEEMED TO BE SLOWEST IN ENDING PRECIPITATION.  THEREFORE...MY POPS
FOR PERIOD 2 WILL BE ABOVE THE AVN/NGM MOS VALUES.  THIS SEEMS MOST
SENSIBLE CONSIDERING...1) THE CURRENT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
...2) DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FRIDAY WITH
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...3) LINGERING THETA-E AXIS
ACROSS SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THRU 18Z FRIDAY...AND 4)
COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH THRU THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...SHORT-TERM CONCERNS...WILL NEED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SWRN VA (AT LEAST THIS EVENING) DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD FRONT
...AND ALSO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SRN MOST ZONE GROUPS WHERE
WIDESPREAD PCPN CONTINUES AS FORECAST TIME APPROACHES.  TEMPS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 70S...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED.  THUS...WORDED AS SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

MOS TEMPS WERE CLOSE MOST PERIODS...WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE
COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY.  MY PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS FOLLOW FOR
COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY:

CHA  69/81/62/83/61  80/40/10/-
TYS  66/79/60/81/58  60/30/-/0
TRI  63/77/55/79/54  50/20/-/0
OQT  65/79/59/80/57  60/30/-/0

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

TG