000 
FXUS63 KICT 302049
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2001

FCST FOCUS ON PRECIP TRENDS THIS EVENING...THEN ON TEMPS AND PRECIP 
CHCS WITHIN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

WILL LEAN ON AN AVN/ETA BLEND

LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC MAP SHOWS SFC LOW EAST OF SALINA WITH SFC 
COOL FRONT NOW ALONG AN ABILENE TO HUTCHINSON LINE.  THE SFC TROUGH 
APPEARS TO BE FROM NEAR EMPORIA TO PONCA CITY...WHILE LATEST VIS 
SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR MANHATTAN WITH AXIS OF 
GREATEST MESOSCALE LIFT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE FLINT HILLS.  
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED CAPES OF 
1000-1500J/KG WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S.  NO DOUBT THIS AREA WILL 
REMAIN UNDER THE GUN THROUGH SUNSET FOR STORM 
DEVELOPMENT...MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN KS DUE TO MORE SUN AND INSTABILITY.


FOR TONIGHT...ALL IN ALL MAY SHOTGUN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING.  WILL GO WITH 30 POPS FOR SE 
THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...WILL WORD BECOMING PTCLDY LATER ON AND 
CURRENT LOWS LOOK FINE.

THURS...SFC/850 BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN OK AND THIS SHOULD AID IN KEEPING CONDS DRY ACROSS THE CWA 
DESPITE ANOTHER WAVE SLIDING SE THROUGH THE REGION.  MAX TEMPS IN 
THE MID 70S LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE...WILL STAY 
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

THURS NIGHT/FRI...WAA/MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR WITH RAPIDLY 
AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE RACES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE 
FRIDAY. SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY 
WITH SW/W SFC WINDS TO AID IN PUSHING MAX TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE. 
MOISTURE VALUES/INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERED STORM 
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WIND 
FIELDS IT LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.  TIMING ALSO 
REMAINS AN ISSUE WITH A FASTER MOVEMENT POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL 
SIMPLY GO WITH 30 POPS SOUTH CENTRAL TO 40 POPS SE WITH SLIGHT CHCS 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL.

EXTENDED...WITH THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
SATURDAY...EXPECT THE SFC FRONT AND MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED INTO 
SOUTHERN OK SO SAT LOOKS DRY DESPITE SOME MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE 
HIGH PLAINS LATE. HAVE NO NEW GUIDANCE BEYOND 72 HOURS AT THIS 
TIME...HOWEVER OLD MRF/ECMWF BLEND WOULD STILL SUGGEST SUNDAY AS THE 
BETTER CHCS FOR STORMS.  WILL KEEP NEXT WEEK DRY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPS.

FCSTID = 11/CO
ICT   56  75  55  88 /  20   0   0  30
HUT   55  75  55  89 /  20   0   0  30
EWK   55  75  55  88 /  20   0   0  30
EQA   55  76  55  87 /  10   0   0  40
WLD   56  76  55  87 /  20   0   0  40
RSL   52  75  54  87 /  20   0   0  20
GBD   52  75  54  88 /  20   0   0  20
SLN   52  74  54  85 /  20   0   0  20
MPR   52  74  54  85 /  20   0   0  20M
CFV   55  76  55  84 /  30   0   0  40
CNU   55  76  55  85 /  30   0   0  40
K88   55  76  55  84 /  30   0   0  40

.ICT...NONE.