000 
FXUS65 KSLC 292150
AFDSLC
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2001

SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND WARMER WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE 
MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT UNTIL SUNSET. A BRUSH-BY SHORTWAVE WILL 
MOVE THROUGH IDAHO MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE EXTREME 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IS ALL WE EXPECT WITH THIS WAVE. THE 
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THAT WAVE BUT STRONG 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MSLP GRADIENT 
IS REVERSED WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE 
AT KSLC ON THE HIGH TOMORROW MAINLY DUE TO AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE. 
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES.   

NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN 
UTAH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE 
INITIAL FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE 
NEAR A DELTA-DUCHESNE LINE BY SUNSET. LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN THE 
FORECAST FROM THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THAT FRONT NORTHWARD. AIRMASS 
IS PROGGED TO BE TOO DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE MUCH SHOWER 
ACTIVITY.  DESPITE THIS I FEEL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WITH THE UPPER JET POSITIONING 
AND EXCELLENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE TO AGAIN 
SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
WINDS AND NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS 
COLD FRONT.

A SECONDARY COLD PUSH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE THEN COMES IN LATE 
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY BEGINNING A PERIOD OF COOL AND 
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR OUR STATE THAT SHOULD EXTEND INTO SATURDAY. 
THE POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE 
25-35 MPH RANGE STATEWIDE. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP 
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL. THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS STILL A 
SIGNATURE ON THE AVN FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 
WASATCH FRONT. A 12-14MB KLND-KSLC DIFFERENTIAL...50-60 KNOT 
EASTERLY FLOW AT H7 AND POTENTIAL CAPPING INVEcRSION NEAR H6 ALL 
REMAIN IN THE PROGS. THINGS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY INTERESTING AROUND 
HERE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  

SLC 000  CDC 000  MAIER

.SLC...NONE