742 
FXUS61 KBOX 121603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1102 AM EST MON MAR 12 2001

...MORE WINTER MIXED EVENTS THRU AT LEAST 3/26 AS SRN STREAM IS A
POTENTIALLY JUICY CONTRIBUTOR TO PURE COASTALS OR TRPL PT COASTAL
REDEVELOPMENTS AS MIDWEST SYSTEMS TRANSFER ENERGY EWD...

THIS WILL BE THE LATE AM AND EARLY AFTN AFD.

TNGT/TUE: GOING WXA AS SOON AS WE CAN. TOO MUCH SLEET PRECLUDES
          WARNING AMTS BUT STILL A MDT STORM EVENT WITH LESS
          SNOWFALL THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED YDY AT THE OUTSET?
          WXA WITH B PYM-PVD NORTHWARD

          MINOR CF WILL B ADDED TO SOME OF THE COASTAL ZONES NOW.
          GIVE US TIME TO EVALUATE THE 12Z MODELS. SEAS WILL RISE
          TO NEAR 10 FT TUE AFTN 013 NWD WITH 10FT MOST LIKELY TO
          STRIKE CAPE ANN NWD TO MERR RVR WITH BLV 6-7FT SWELLS
          TO BOS HARBOR ENTRANCE MIDDAY TUE.

          S COAST: SHUD SEE SEAS REACH 10-15 TUE NIGHT AND WED AM
                   ON THE SLY SWELL...AGAIN SPLASHOVR WITHIN 1HR
                   HIGH TIDE.

          QPF: COUNT ON .5 TO 1.0 WATER EQUIV IN ALL OF SNE WITH
               HEAVIEST IN ELY UPSLOPE REGIONS OF BERKS...NW HILLS
               CT AND THEN RI/ORH/MONAD HILLS AND I 95. MAY SEE
               ISO 1.5 SOMEWHERE RI TO SE MA IF ISO TSTMS DVLP
               I 95 LOOKS LIKE AN 80 PCT CHC OF .75 W.E TUESDAY.

          PROPOSED IMPACTS BLO...DIFFICULT TO FCST BUT OF CONCERN.

          CATCH BASIN FLOODING: APPEARS A REASONABLE RISK...WITHIN
          RTE 128 SW TO NW TO NE OF BOS WHERE DRAINS MAY STILL BE
          COVERED OR PLUGGED WITH 1 FT OR MORE OF SNOW/ICE FM
          3/6 AND 9 STORMS. MODELS RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY
          MEANS AN INCREASED RISK OF A BIT OF SNOW MELT CONTRIB
          I95.

          ROOF STRUCTURE ISSUE: ANY ROOF ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
          STRUCTURAL WEAKENING FM THE PAST WEEKS EVENTS SHUD BE
          CONSIDERED MOST VULNERABLE FOR FURTHER DEGRADATION AFTER
          TUESDAYS QPF EVENT. EVEN AS SLEET...THATS ALL WATER
          LOADING. FORESEE CONTD FURTHER AGGRAVATION OF PBLMS
          MERR VLY TO RTE 2 REGION WHERE MOSTLY SLEET EVENT.

          ROOF GUTTER CLEARANCE: IF NOT CLEARED MELTING MAY BACK UP
          UNDER SHINGLES. ANY CLEARANCE OF THESE PBLMS SHUD B DONE
          CAREFULLY TO MINIMIZE RISK OF INJURY OR DAMAGE AND
          POSSIBLY CONSULTING OFFICIALS AND ROOFING TRADES.

WED AM: STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABT A MSALL POCKET OF SW+ BENEATH
        A VT MAX...BUT SMALL IN COMPARISON TO WDSPRD ICING TUE AM.

        SNOW WATER EQUIVALENCY (SWE): POSTED ON NERFC WEB PAGE. TX
        CHECK THIS OUT.

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/NERFC/GRAPHICS/SNOWMAPS/PCTMX1TODAY.JPB

        150 PCT OF NORMAL OR MORE OF NORMAL MAXIMUM SWE IN MANY
        BASINS OF VT INTO NRN MASS...AGAIN THATS THE NORMAL
        MAXIMUM.

LR:     WITH ANOTHER EVENT OF SORTS LATE FRIDAY 3/16 AND POSSIBLY
        AGAIN ARD 3/20 AND THEN SEEMINGLY ANOTHER NEAR 3/24-25 TIME
        FRAME. ...BETTER WISH FOR THESE TO BE MISSES OR LIGHT QPF.

        NOW MOST OF THESE WILL OR SHOULD B WINTRY MIXES
        DUE TO CONTG NEG NAO AND NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE PNA.

        IF..WE GET SNOWMELTS ARE EASY GOING ON DAILY BASIS
        WE GET OUT OF HERE FORTUNATE WITH ONLY MINOR
        FLOODING THIS SPRING...BUT...THIS APPEARS TO BE
        BECOMING AN UNUSUAL SITN...ESP IF WE GET THREE MORE
        1 EVENTS INTO THE INTEIROR FA BTWN 3/15 AND 3/26.

        ESF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK TO BE UPDATED FRIDAY.

ASOS:BOS BEING FIXED TODAY.
CRS: PVD TRANSMITTER A BIT WEAK AND BEING WORKED ON.


SNOW DEPTH: MARLOW NH 52 3/12/01( THIS AM)...RANKS UP THERE BUT 1958
            PER STRAUSS TELCON WITH NERFC SHOWED 64 IN 1958

            NEVERTHELESS: IMPRESSIVE SNOW DEPTH AND WINTER FOR SNOW
                          IN THE INTERIOR OF SNE.
.BOS...WXA ALL REGION PYM-PVD NWD LATE TNGT AND TUE AM.
       GLW MAY BE REQURD TUE ALL MARINES EXCEPT BOS HARB NARR BAY
       SCA MAY BE REQURD TUE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRGNST BAY.

DRAG