000 
FXUS61 KBTV 070245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2001

WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD.

WITH SFC PRESS RISES ACRS NEW ENG ATTM...EXPECT SFC/UPR LOW TO CONT
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENG OVRNITE TONITE. GOOD SFC PRESS
GRADIENT TO BE LEFT ACRS THE FA THOUGH OVRNITE TONITE...THEN WEAKEN
ON WED. WK STORM SYS TO DROP DOWN ACRS CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LKS REGION OVRNITE TONITE AND ON WED. WK UPR RIDGE TO START TO
MOVE INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST ON WED AS WELL.

21Z 40KM FSL RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE UPR TEENS-M20S
TONITE. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS-L20S TONITE. THESE RANGES
SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. WILL BUMP MOST OVRNITE
LOWS UP A BIT AND WIDEN SOME OF THE RANGES. SFC WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE N-NE AT 10-15 KTS TONITE. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD WINDS BASED
ON THIS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS. BLSN/DRSN TO NOT BE A CONTINUED
PROBLEM ACRS THE FA TONITE. STRONG E-NE FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACRS
THE FA TONITE. LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO DRY OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 09Z TONITE. PW VALUES TO BE AROUND
0.30 ACRS THE FA EARLY TONITE.

RUC SHOWS SN TO TAPER OFF TO JUST A FEW -SHSN BY AROUND 06Z TONITE.
MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OR SO POSSIBLE ACRS SRN AREAS BEFORE THE END OF IT
ALL. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS BACK EDGE OF PCPN MOVING SOUTH ACRS THE FA
ATTM. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CHAMP VLY AND NE/NC VT WILL BE SEEING AN
END TO THE PCPN BY AROUND 04Z. MADE SLIGHT RE-GROUP TO SRN VT ZONES
TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER -SN END TIME THERE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SN
TO THE NORTH OF THERE. WILL TRY ON HOLD ZONES AS LATE AS POSSIBLE TO
LET SN FADE ACRS THE CENTRAL FA. BASED ON IR SAT PIX TRENDS...BEST
CHC FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPEARS TO BE ACRS NRN NY STATE AND
HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE UPDATED ZFP.

H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...THEN WEAKEN WITH TIME ON
WED. MID-LVL MOISTURE TO DRY OUT ACRS THE FA TONITE AND STAY THAT WAY
FOR WED. SOME AMT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO WED. 12Z AVN
EVEN CRANKING OUT A LIL PCPN FOR THEN...BUT WILL NOT BUY INTO ATTM.
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS OF THE GOING ZFP.

WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP AFTER 10 PM.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY