000 FXUS65 KBYZ 050331 AFDBIL SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 830 PM MST SUN MAR 04 2001 .MON AND TUE... FOG REFORMING AROUND BHK WITH VISIBILITY AT A HALF MILE PER CURRENT FORECAST. FOG ALSO REPORTED AROUND MILES CITY. FOG SATELLITE PHOTOS INDICATE FOG CREEPING INTO CARTER, FALLON AND CUSTER COUNTIES. WILL UPDATE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO REFLECT THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS AND WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES SOME AS WELL. WEAK UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OTHER AREAS FOR PATCHY FOG. STORM ON EACH COAST WITH RIDGE PROTECTION NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE BEARTOOTH AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. MINOR CHANGES FORTHCOMING. THORICHT .WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN... MRF SHOWING SOME CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUN...MAINLY OUT IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHERE PREVIOUS RUN HAD A TROUGH AND 12Z SUN RUN NOW HAS A CUT- OFF LOW DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...ECMWF/UKMET/MRF TEND TO AGREE ON MSL PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT DAY 5/6 TIME FRAME. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING THE EASTERN MOST PORTION COOLER WHILE THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVES INLAND AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST STATES. AVN AGREES WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRENDS WELL INTO THE MRF SOLUTION...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED FCST PACKAGE. TREND WILL BE TO GO WITH A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH DAY 5 AND THEN A GRADUAL COOLING AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY DAY 6/7. SPRINGER MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 025/053 031/046 027/040 025/048 029/050 028/044 024/044 00/B 02/W 33/J 00/B 00/B 22/E 33/W LVM 021/053 029/050 027/044 025/050 029/050 029/045 025/045 01/B 03/W 33/J 00/B 00/B 22/E 33/W HDN 021/052 030/045 023/040 020/049 024/050 026/044 022/044 00/B 02/W 33/J 00/B 00/B 22/E 33/W MLS 023/046 028/044 022/035 020/045 024/048 025/040 022/043 00/B 02/W 33/J 00/B 00/B 22/E 33/W 4BQ 021/048 026/045 021/037 019/045 023/048 025/042 025/042 00/B 02/W 33/J 00/B 00/B 22/E 33/W BHK 019/043 025/043 018/033 016/041 020/045 023/038 020/040 00/E 02/W 33/J 00/B 00/B 22/E 33/W SHR 013/047 025/046 022/040 018/047 022/048 022/040 022/040 00/B 02/W 33/J 00/B 00/B 22/E 33/W