243 
FXUS65 KTFX 211658
AFDTFX
AFDTFX
 
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MST WED FEB 21 2001
 
WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE.
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF FRONT WHICH IS MAKING FASTEST
PROGRESS ENTERING NORTHERN MONTANA. FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH CUT BANK AND
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THEIR WINDS AND TEMPERATURE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS A BIT
OF A PROBLEM TODAY AS LEE SIDE TROF SHIFTS EAST. MODELS INDICATE FRONT
SHOULD REACH GREAT FALLS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EMANUEL 
 
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NEW MRF AND ECMWF AGREE WITH UPPER LOW OFF
CALIFORNIA AND OREGON COAST MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH DYNAMICS SOUTH OF
MONTANA...BUT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE PROGS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH SYSTEM IN CANADA WILL DIP. THEN PROGRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CHAOTIC GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THEREAFTER. OARD
 
CCF NUMBERS
GTF NE 041/014 028/014 035 16022
CTB NE 032/012 025/011 032 16122
HLN BE 038/018 033/016 034 16112
BZN BE 036/016 032/014 032 16112
WEY EE 038/014 038/010 035 16123
DLN BE 038/020 036/016 038 16112
HVR BE 032/005 022/005 032 16022
LWT BE 039/016 028/015 034 16022