000 
FXUS66 KMFR 141704
AFDMFR

SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
830 AM PST WED FEB 14 2001

NOT MUCH PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATELLITE
EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG IN THE UMPQUA....WHICH WILL
BURN OFF THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...FOG CHANNEL SHOWS A NICE
DELINIATION BETWEEN SOME STRATUS AND SNOW OVER NRN LAKE COUNTY. HIGHS
WILL BE TOUCHED DOWN THERE FOR THE CHRISTMAS LAKE AND FORT ROCK
VALLEYS...AS BURNS ONLY HIT 18 YESTERDAY. THERMAL TROUGH IS WEAKENING
AS EVIDENCED BY DECREASING WIND TREND ACROSS COASTAL HIGHER ELEVATION
SITES. SO A LITTLE LESS DOWNSLOPING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN HIGHS
EXPCTD CURRY COAST. 

LATEST MODELS TREND IS TOWARD YESTERDAY'S ECMWF SOLN IN TAKING THENRN
STREAM SHORT WAVE NOW DIVING DOWN WRN BC UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
HIGH...PHASING WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW. MODELS DO PAINT SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN THE SOUTH DUE TO
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING NEAR MT. SHASTA...AND IN THE NORTH DUE TO SOME
OVERRUNNUNG NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SWLY FLOW THURS NGT THROUGH
FRI MAY KEEP AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE SISKIYOUS RAINSHADOWED. THURS
NGT-FRI POPS OF PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE AFTN PKG...FOLLOWED BY POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH CONTINUES TO LOOK WET WITH SW FLW FROM A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF NRN CAL/SW OR. MEX AND MFR POPS SAT-WEDS SHOW
GENERALLY 50-70%. STAVISH

.MFR...NONE

OTH UE 054/034& 053/037 052 090014
4BK UE 060/035 052/037 052 090002
RBG UE 051/032 052/038 052 090014
MFR UE 054/026 048/031 049 090001
LMT UE 045/018 041/021 042 090001
LKV UE 034/014 035/017 039 090001
MHS UE 044/021 048/024 042 090001