184 
FXUS63 KILX 252146 COR
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO COUNTY NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CST THU JAN 25 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...INVOLVE SNOW AMTS 
FRI WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEM PUSHING INTO TME MIDWEST FROM THE SRN 
PLAINS AND TEMPS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING RIDGE AXIS OFF TO OUR EAST WITH GRADIENT 
TIGHTENING UP ACRS THE SRN PLAINS AHD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN ON 
WATER VAPOR LOOP OVR CNTRL NEW MEXICO. REALLY NOT MUCH TO CHOOSE 
MODEL-WISE THIS RUN AS THE ETA AND AVN ARE SIMILAR IN TRACK OF SFC
AND UPPER LVL FEATURES. AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING 
SHOULD SEE SLY WINDS INCREASE ACRS THE STATE WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT
EARLY BEFORE HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION SET IN. ETA
AND AVN DEPICTING EXIT REGION OF JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIV
ACRS WRN CWA BY 12Z WITH IMPRESSIVE LAYERED OMEGA AND 700-500 QVCTR
CONVERGENCE OVR STATE. EVEN 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES INCR TO 7.3 DEG
C/KM BY LATE MORNING OVR CNTRL IL AS SHORTWAVE APPRCHS AREA. ONLY 
NEGATIVE WILL BE WITH DYNAMICS MOVING IN QUICKLY FRI MRNG...DEPTH OF 
MOISTURE MAY LAG BEHIND BEST LIFT. HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS 
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE COLUMN SATURATE RATHER QUICKLY FOR SNOW TO BREAK 
OUT AROUND 12Z IN OUR WRN CWA AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE MRNG. LOOKS 
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES ARND MOST OF CWA WITH OUR FAR SERN COUNTIES 
SEEING LESS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PD OF -SN/IP-/FZRA DURING 
THE MRNG BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES BY MID AFTERNOON AS BEST LIFT 
SHIFTS EAST. AS A RESULT...WL ISSUE A SNOW ADVSY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I70...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVSY FOR COUNTIES SOUTH.   

SYSTEM SHOULD PULL AWAY QUICKLY FRI EVENING WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE
REMAINING ACRS THE CWA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTONS SUGGEST DEPTH OF 
MOISTURE BECOMES RATHER SHALLOW BY MORNING BUT FOR NOW WL NOT RUSH THE
CLRG TREND UNTIL SATURDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC. GUID NUMBERS
APPEAR TO WARM ON FRIDAY...ESP ACRS THE NORTH SO WL PULL BACK A  
CATEGORY. BASED ON CLEARING HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY...WL TEND TO 
FOLLOW GUID FRI NIGHT BUT TREND A BIT COLDER IN CASE SKIES CLEAR 
TWDS MRNG. ...ESP WITH FRESH COVERING OF SNOW.

WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET SAT AFTN THRU SUNDAY EVENING WITH MORE POTENT SYSTEM
STILL SLATED TO PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY. AVN CONTINUING TO 
SHOW SFC LOW PULLING SHARPLY TO THE NORTH ON MON...NEAR PIA BY 12Z 
TUE...A BIT QUICKER THAN THIS MRNGS MRF. STILL LOOKING MORE LIQUID THE
FROZEN AROUND HERE WITH SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A FAIRLY 
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF IT AS WELL. THANKS TO LOT...LSX AND DVN FOR THE
COORD THIS AFTERNOON.  


...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION ONLY...

SPI SB 023/034 022/030 018 443+2
PIA SB 020/032 018/028 014 443+2
DEC SB 021/033 024/030 018 442+4
CMI SB 017/032 024/029 014 440+4
MTO SB 019/034 026/031 017 442+4
LWV OB 021/037 028/036 021 442+4

.ILX...SNOW ADVISORY FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I70
       ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063

       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FRIDAY SOUTH OF I70
       ILZ066>068-071>073

$$
SMITH