000 
FXUS61 KRLX 252025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
326 PM EST THU JAN 25 2001

SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE.  EXPECT THESE AND MOST 
OF THE CLOUDS TO GO BYE-BYE BY 00Z AS MOISTURE DRIES UP.

PREFER THE ETA THIS RUN...WITH NGM A CLOSE SECOND.  AVN SEEMS TO 
HAVE HAD INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES.  AVN 
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS LOW...WHICH WOULD KEEP COLDER 
AIR OVER THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT.  THIS IS THE KEY TO PRECIP TYPE 
DILEMMA.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS 
HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  CUTTING MOS LOWS 3-5 DEGREES 
ACROSS THE BOARD.  PLANNING ON SOME DECENT RANGES...PARTICULARLY IN 
THE MOUNTAINS.

H500 RIDGE CROSSES REGION AROUND 12Z.  SHOULD START TO SEE MID/HI 
CLOUD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS NORTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.  COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE PRECIP SNEAK INTO THE 
WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE 00Z SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL TAKE MOST OF THE ACTION TO OUR NORTH.  WILL 
HAVE A NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT TO POPS...WITH LIKELY ONLY IN THE 
NORTH.  MAIN QUESTION IS RAIN/SNOW LINE.  EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL WARM 
AIR TO REMAIN IN THE SW COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING. WILL MORE OR 
LESS FOLLOW THE 1000-850 CRIT THICKNESS VALUES FOR RAIN/SNOW.  THIS 
WOULD ALLOW SOME EVENING RAIN IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS/COALFIELDS AND 
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.  LIGHT SNOW THE WHOLE NIGHT NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE 
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO.  NOT IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL QPF.

SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT AND BE EAST OF REGION BY 
12Z SATURDAY.  ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW BY THIS POINT AND BE MORE 
SHOWERY.  NOT A PARTICULARLY GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW SITUATION BEHIND THE 
SYSTEM...BUT WILL STILL OF COURSE LEAVE LINGERING SHSN ALL DAY IN THE 
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHEN COLD AIR RETURNS AFTOER 
AN EARLY WEEK WARMUP.  COULD SEE ANOTHER DECENT BATCH OF QPF MIDWEEK.

           
.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END /CL