635 
FXUS63 KEAX 190908
AFDMCI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
308 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2001

THOUGHTS OF FLURRIES AND TEMPERATURES ARE WHATS GOING ON TONITE. 
CURRNT 88D SHOWS SMALL BAND OF SNOW COMING DOWN ALONG WITH THE 
STRONG WINDS BHND FRNT. VSBYS HAVE ACTUALLY FALLEN TO 2SM WITH 
THIS. CURRNT SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD PAINT A PTCLDY PICTURE FOR MUCH 
OF WRN ZONES TDY...HOWEVER AVN/ETA BOTH PRINT OUT QPF FOR AREA. FEEL 
THAT THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL AND HIGH MID LEVEL LAPSE 
RATES WITH H5 LOW. WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLDS DUE TO THIS 
AND WORD SOME MORNING FLURRIES AREA-WIDE.  LTL WARMING TDY...HIEST 
TEMPS PROBABLY WILL BE THIS MORNING. GUID TEMPS ARENT BAD FOR WHAT 
WE SHOULD SIT AT MOST OF THE DAY.

A LTL CONCERNED THAT THE STRATUS WONT LEAVE LOOKING AT 925MB ETA 
RH...SO WILL HOPE THE NGM/S DEPICTION OF THIS IS CORRECT. IN WHICH 
CASE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.  WILL UNDERCUT GUID 
SLIGHTLY. 

DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS AND SRLY SFC FOR SAT WOULD INDICATE BIG 
WARMUP. AND THE ONLY WAY THAT A 30 DEG REBOUND WILL HAPPEN IN 
JANUARY. THINK THE MAV IS A BIG OPTIMISTIC...WILL SEE THE ETA/AVN 
2M/SFC TEMPS AND RAISE TO FWC. CLOUDS STREAM IN LATE IN THE 
DAY...AND WILL NEED TO MAKE SAT NITE MOCLDY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP 
OVERNITE LOWS A CATEGORY OR TWO HIER THAN GOING FCST. HAVE OPTED TO 
KEEP SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL GET THE CLDS IN THERE AND DEFER 
TO THE DAY CREW.

.EAX...NONE.

LVQ