646 
FXUS64 KLUB 032031
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK, TX
230 PM CST WED JAN 3 2001

GENERAL LONG-WAVE PATTERN CONT TO REMAIN STATIC ACROSS THE CONUS 
WITH DRY NW FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE FA. BENIGN WX EXPECTED FOR 
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS THE ONLY FCST PROBLEM. GUIDANCE 
NUMBERS CONT TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW 
PACK THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NW ZONES. HWVR EXPECT 
INFLUENCE TO BE MITIGATED A BIT ON THU AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BECOMES 
MORE W/SW AHEAD OF THE NXT COLD FRONT. THIS WL ALLOW SFC PARCELS TO 
TRAVEL ACROSS NO/LESS SNOW COVER. AN EXCEPTION WL BE ACROSS THE 
N-CNTRL ZONES FROM KPVW TO SILVERTON TO LOCKNEY WHERE SNOW PACK AREA 
IS STILL EXTENSIVE OFF TO THE W/SW. WL GO WITH COLDEST TEMPS THERE 
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE WARMER THAN TDA. SFC LOW MOVING SE ACROSS 
S-CNTRL CANADA SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER FRONT TO DIVE S AND CLR THE FA 
BY LATE THU BRINGING A SLGT COOL DOWN FOR FRI. FRONT WL BE DRY AS 
GULF MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS CUT OFF.

EXTENDED FORECAST...MODELS HINT THAT A PORTION OF UPR LOW OFF THE 
BAJA WL PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEST 
COAST RIDGE ON SAT AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUN AS ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT DIVE S FROM CANADA. AVN/MRF THETA-E FIELDS INDICATE BEST 
MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN W INTO NM SO WL CONT WITH DRY FCST ATTM. 
NXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE LATE TUE INTO WED AS SOUTHERN 
STREAM TROUGH TRANSVERSES THE RGN. HWVR GREAT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE AS 
LONG-WAVE PATTERN APPEARS TO RADICALLY CHANGE AND MODELS TEND TO 
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN THESE SCENARIOS. SINCE EXTENDED FCST 
ALREADY HAS MENTION OF PRECIP WL OPT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. PRELIM 
NUMBERS FOLLOW.   

FCSTID = 44
FRI   24  57  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
TUL   23  55  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
CDS   26  60  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
BNF   24  60  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
LBB   23  59  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASP   26  63  29  52 /   0   0   0   0

.LUB...NONE.

ST