000 
FXUS61 KBGM 032002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EST WED JAN 3 2001

A NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY JANUARY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND NO SNOW...A RARITY THE LAST MONTH. THAT WILL CHANGE SOON
THOUGH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN THIS EVENING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...BUT
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LIKELY NORTH AND CENTRAL AND CHANCE
SOUTH. ACCUMS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH MOST PLACES ONLY
GETTING A DUSTING. CLOUD DECK JUST ENTERING WRN NY...SO THERE
SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF CLEAR SKIES FOR TEMPS TO FALL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL GO A CAT OR TWO BELOW MOS
LOWS.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH THE AVN
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ERN U.S. ON
FRIDAY. WONT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THOUGH. WILL
USE ETA/AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THURSDAY..WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS WEAK FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ALIGN
FAIRLY WELL AT 295 DEGS...SO A SINGLE BAND WILL LIKELY FORM.
INSTABILITY WONT BE GREAT...BUT THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL ISSUE ADVISORY THURSDAY FOR ONONDAGA...MADISON AND
SRN ONEIDA COUNTIES FOR 2-5 OF SNOW. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR REST
OF FINGER LAKES THROUGH SUSQUEHANNA REGION. ACCUMS IN THESE AREAS
WILL BE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
NRN CHENANGO AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS.

THU NIGHT..WINDS BACK QUICKLY AHEAD OF NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WHICH
WILL PUT AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS OUR AREA.  SNOW FROM THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND OVERSPREAD REST OF ZONES BY DAYBREAK.

FRIDAY..SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING .2-.3 QPF FOR THIS
EVENT...WHICH TRANSLATES TO ABOUT 3-6 OF SNOW. WILL GO
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND GO WITH 2-4 FOR NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND
1-3 FOR SRN ZONES.

EXTENDED (FRI NIGHT-WED)..AVN/MRF HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUN-MON.
ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENT AVN...
AND ARE PROBABLY MORE CORRECT. WITH SYSTEM STILL A FEW DAYS OFF
WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS SUN-TUESDAY. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP WED
DRY.

WORK ZONES OUT. ZONES BY 400 PM.

.BGM...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THURSDAY FOR ONONDAGA...MADISON AND
SRN ONEIDA COUNTIES.

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