782 
FXUS61 KLWX 010816
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
315 AM EST MON JAN 1 2001

ERN U.S. TROF AND WRN U.S. RDG TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WITH A SERIES OF MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE ERN 
U.S. TROF. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO 
DEAMPLIFY WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF OUR SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR AND ALLOW 
SOME MILDER MODIFIED POLAR AIR INTO THE AREA. 

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CLOUD PLUME OFF OF LAKES HURON AND 
WRN ERIE INTO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND 
UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE OFF THE LAKES INTO OUR FAR NWRN RDGS TDA. WILL 
CONTINUE W/CHC POPS FOR SHSN ON THE FAR NWRN RIDGES TDA AND MENTION 
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. E OF THE RDGS...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KILL OFF 
THE SHSN AND MUCH OF THE STRATOCU. WILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES ON THE 
FAR NWRN RDGS TNGT BUT TAKE MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR TUE AS 850MB 
FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.

NEXT SHORTWAVE...OVR IA AT 06Z WILL MOVE ESE PASSING TO OUR S TNGT 
THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUE. THE GULF AND ATLC REMAIN CUTOFF SO 
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR S. 
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL MOISTURE OVR THE AREA 
TDA...TNGT AND EARLY TUE AS THE SYS PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. BEHIND 
THE SYS A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE. 

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THRU THE AREA THU WITH A BRIEF 
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE MOISTURE 
STARVED AND THE GULF AND ATLC REMAIN CUT OFF SO EXPECT NO PCPN AS 
THE SYS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE FAR NW 
RDGS WHICH COULD SEE SOME SHSN ACTIVITY OFF THE LAKES THU.

AFTER THU...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND A MILDER AIR MASS WILL WORK 
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FOR FRI AND SAT.

FOR THE FCST...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS SHSN WRN RDGS TDA. ELSEWHERE...MID 
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN P/CLDY SKIES. PLAN ON GOING P/CLDY 
TNGT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH (STILL CHC FLURRIES FAR 
NWRN RDGS). ON TUE...MODELS SHOW SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE MORNING WITH 
SOME CLRG IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...ANOTHER P/CLDY DAY.


FCSTID = 15 / DMW 

DCA   35  23  33  22 /   0  10   0   0
BWI   34  20  33  20 /   0  10   0   0
MRB   32  18  32  17 /   0  10   0   0
IAD   34  18  33  16 /   0  10   0   0
CHO   34  20  34  18 /   0  10   0   0
HGR   31  15  30  15 /   0  10   0   0
NHK   36  24  35  24 /   0  10   0   0

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.