000 
FXUS64 KLZK 290846
AFDLIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 
245 AM CST WED NOV 29 2000

FORECAST CONCERNS: FIRST PERIOD POPS/FOG TRENDS...TEMPS THROUGHOUT 
THE PERIOD.

FRONT HAS BEEN A BIT MORE STUBBORN THIS MORNING IN MOVING THROUGH 
THE FA. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM AROUND 
KBYH...TO NEAR KPBF TO JUST SOUTH OF KTXK. SCATTERED SHRA HAVE 
PERSISTED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE STATE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... 
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG NOTED BETWEEN THE RAIN AREA AND THE FRONT. 

MODELS ARE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH OVERALL TRENDS 
THROUGH THE PD. AN ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST 
TO CONTINUE. FIRST SHORTWAVE NOW TO OUR NORTH...WILL PUSH EWD TODAY. 
THIS WILL ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF AR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SURFACE OBS RIGHT UP TIL PRESS TIME AS FAR AS 
VISIBILITIES GO. NOT PLANNING ON ANY KIND OF ADVISORY ATTM. WILL 
ALSO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CONCERNING THE MENTION OF POPS EARLY THIS 
MORNING OVER THE SERN ZONES.

RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AND 
THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AR. MAIN PUSH OF 
COLDER AIR WITH THE HIGH WILL BE SEEN OVER NRN AR. CENTER OF THE 
HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF THE FA THURSDAY...ALLOWING WIND FLOW TO 
BECOME GENERALLY SEWD BY THE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE 
EXPECTED.

PLAN TO USE A BLEND OF THE NGM MOS AND MAV TEMPS FOR MAXES TODAY AND 
THURSDAY. WILL STICK CLOSER TO COOLER MAV READINGS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...NEXT SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA 
FRIDAY. SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THIS LAST SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THRU ON FRIDAY. RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
NOTED AT H85 ON THE AVN...BUT STILL APPEARS LIMITED FOR ANY 
ORGANIZED PRECIP AND PLAN TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. RETURN FLOW 
SETS UP AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF 
R7AIN. WILL PEAK AT NEW MRF...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST 
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.  ..44..

.LIT...NONE.