000 
FXUS62 KMHX 290701 COR
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
200 AM EST WED NOV 29 2000

NORTHERN JET STREAK CLEARLY SEEN IN VAPOR LOOPS ENTERING MISSOURI. 
ISOTACH MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS 
SCHEDULED TO TEAR ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. MODELS IN
NODDING AGREEMENT PAINTING PVA AND PASSING SWATH OF 500-700 UVM 
ACROSS ERN NC BTWN 00Z-06Z TNGT FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENT FIELDS. 

THE SYSTEM IS FAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOESNT HAVE AMPLE TIME TO PRIME 
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH FUEL. TIME SECTION COMPARISONS KEEP AIR VERY DRY 
ABOVE 600 MB. DEEPEST MOISTURE AT 06Z RINGS OUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS 
LESS THAN 3/4 INCHES. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAPE ALMOST NIL DURING PEAK 
MOISTURE. BY FAR BEST OVERALL DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE MHX ZONES.
LIKE CURRENT 20 POPS TNGT. DEBATE IS WHETHER TO KEEP LATE AFTN CHC.

TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY. MUCH HINGES ON CIRRUS STREAM FROM THE 
SW. AS THE NRN ENERGY APPROACHES 200-300 MB RH FALLS FROM W TO E 
DROPPING BELOW 50 PCNT AFTR 18Z. MORNING HIGH CLOUDS AFTN SUN WILL 
MUTE TEMPS EARLY. SOME UNDERCUTTING OF GUIDANCE MAY BE NEEDED AS
THOSE TEMPS REFLECT CLR SKY TO SCT CLOUDS THIS MORNING.

BUOYS SHOW GNRL NW FLOW RIGHT NOW. EXPECT A LULL TO LGT VRBL TWD 
MIDDAY AS SFC RDG AXIS CROSSES THE COAST. WINDS THEN RESPOND AS
SYS APPROACHES AND LOWER PRESS DROPS FROM THE N. SMALL CRAFT LIKELY 
TNGT BY 06Z AND APT TO STAY UP ALL DAY THU AS CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF 
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS BOMBS AND MS VLY ANTICYCLONE BUILDS EWD.

.MHX...NONE.

COLBY