000 
FXUS63 KILX 162027
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CST THU NOV 16 2000

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PD WL BE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER OVR CWA AND 
AFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT 24 HRS AND TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING
IN FROM NW THIS WEEKEND. 

18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING COLD FRONT NOW OVR CNTRL INDIANA PUSHING
RAPIDLY AWAY FROM CWA. ISALLOBARIC PRES RISE CENTER SHIFTING ACRS
EASTERN IA INTO NW IL SUGGESTING STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST
NORTH OF FCST AREA INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN 
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SEEN ON VSBL LOOP WITH
FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF SUBSIDENCE INDICATED OVR SRN IL WITH ONLY 
A GRADUAL SHIFT ESE OF LOW LVL CLOUD DECK. THRU 24 HOURS...NOT MUCH
TO ARGUE ABOUT MODEL-WISE WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP AFTER 36 HOURS
WITH NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WITH FAST NWLY FLOW ACRS
THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND...PREFER THE QUICKER ETA
SOLUTION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CWA ON SAT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE REGION SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND VSBL LOOPS ACRS FAR
SOUTHERN IL SHOULD FILL IN LATER THIS EVENING WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOCLDY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HOLDING UP
SOME TNT...WL STAY CLOSE TO GUID NUMBERS IN MOST OF FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOISTURE AOB 850 MB
SHOULD HOLD ACRS FCST AREA INTO FRI PM BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE FOR
START OF WEEKEND. WITH A FASTER MOVEMENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
CLOUDS BACK INTO STATE ON SATURDAY BUT DUE TO LACK OF SIG MOISTURE WL
HOLD OFF MENTION OF S-- UNTIL SAT NIGHT SUN TIME FRAME. 850 TEMPS CONT
ON THE COLD SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH -12 TO -14 DEG C OVR NRN HALF
OF CWA...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 30S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.  

WITH PNA PATTERN (TROF EAST...RIDGE WEST) FCST TO HOLD ACRS THE US INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...FAST MOVING CLIPPERS WILL DROP INTO THE LNWV TROF
POSITION ABT EVERY 2-3 DAYS BRINGING WITH IT S-- AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST TO
SHIFT TROF AWAY FROM THE ERN LAKES NEXT WEEK WHILE MRF MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DVLPG TROF OVR WRN US ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.    


PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION ONLY...

SPI EB 023/034 019/038 025 44210
PIA EB 022/033 018/037 025 44221
DEC EB 023/0%34 019/038 025 44210
CMI EB 023/033 018/037 025 44211
MTO EB 025/035 020/038 027 44211
LWV EB 026/037 021/039 028 44111

.ILX...NONE.

$$
SMITH