928 
FXUS64 KOHX 162020
AFDBNA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 PM CST THU NOV 16 2000

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT NEARING MS RIVER VALLEY. BAND OF RAIN ACROSS
CWA CONTINUES TO MOVE S/E WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME.

MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO TRICKLE IN BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS OF NEW AND
OLD IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING EWARD...SHIFTING THE
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO E TN/N AL BY 06Z/FRI. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS BY BNA VICINITY AROUND 03Z OR SO. EXPECT RAIN TO
END THIS EVENING AND WILL ADJUST ZONES ACCORDINGLY BASED ON LATEST
RADAR INFO.

SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP SHOP
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI/FRI NIGHT..GIVING THE AREA A BRIEF DRY
SPELL THROUGH SAT.

ALTHOUGH MEAN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DRIES TOWARD 12Z FRI...BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. PARTIAL
CLEARING COULD COMMENSE W OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG FRI
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU.

WHILE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED THRU 00Z SUN...NEXT PROBLEM ALREADY
WAITING IN THE WINGS. POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT MID-
LEVEL TROF WILL BE SPREAD OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT ACROSS VERY
COLD AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE REGION. AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OR BELOW LOW/MID LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES OVERNIGHT SAT
AND INTO SUN. BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE TEMPS ARE AN ISSUE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP BUT EXPECT NERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. PRECIP ACROSS THE S LIKELY
TO BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. WILL INTRODUCE SMALL POPS
SCENERIO FOR 5TH PERIOD.

BNA 32/42/24/44/30 20013
CSV 29/41/20/43/26 40003

.BNA...NONE