000 
FXUS63 KLSX 012144
AFDSTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CST WED NOV 1 2000

SCT TSRA CONT TO MOV N-NEWD ACRS WRN MO IN NARROW ZONE OF LOW-MID 
LVL MOISTURE ALNG 35-45 KT S-SWLY LOW LVL JET AHD OF CDFNT.  
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO NRN AND WRN PTNS OF CWFA THIS EVNG AS 
SHRTWV TROF EXTDG FM MID-UPR LOW OVR SD SW THRU TX PNHDL ROTATES 
NEWD AND CDFNT MOVS SLOWLY SEWD THRU NWRN MO.  CONVECTION SHOULD WKN 
LTR TGT WITH WKNG INSTABILITY AND AS WIND FIELD AND LOW LVL CNVG WKN 
AS UPR AND SFC LOW MOV N-NEWD THRU ND AND NWRN MN.  ETA/AVN MDLS 
ALSO DEPICT A WKNG OF THE 850-700 MB QN FRCG AS IT TRANSLATES EWD 
ACRS MO BETWEEN 00Z TO 12Z THU MRNG.  PCPN AND CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER 
ACRS THE EXTRM SRN PTN OF CWFA THU NGT AND FRI AS AVN MDL CONTS TO 
SHOW UPR LVL DIVERGENCE ACRS SRN MO IN RGT ENTRANCE REGION OF ULJ 
STRK MOVG NEWD TWRDS THE GRT LKS REGION.  OVERRUNNING TYPE PCPN AND 
CLOUDINESS LIKELY S OF CWFA AS 850 MB/SFC CDFNT STALL WITH ANOTHER 
MID-UPR LOW CUTTING OFF OVR THE SWRN US AND W-SWLY MID-UPR FLW NRLY 
PARALLEL TO FNT.  MDL GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE THRU PERIOD...PREFER THE 
WRMR FWC TEMPS TGT OVR THE FAN/MAV TEMPS AS AVN MDL APRS A LTL FAST 
WI`TH SEWD PUSH OF CDFNT.  PREFER THE SLOWER ETA/NGM MDLS WITH TIMING 
OF CDFNT TGT AND THU.
                  
.STL...NONE

GKS