228 
FXUS65 KVEF 280503
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1003 PM PDT WED SEP 27 2000

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA 
THURSDAY WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAINING OFF THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDINESS 
...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES 
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN 
PLACE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN A 
CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.      

DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA IS A RESULT OF A TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG 
THE WEST COAST. NGM/ETA INITIALIZED TROUGH SIMILARLY AND REMAIN 
SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS WHILE THE AVN IS DEEPER AND CLOSES OFF THE 
LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ETA IS PROBABLY 
THE BEST BET TO FOLLOW DUE TO RECENT PERFORMANCE. NORTHWEST ARIZONA 
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE ONLY SPOT IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR ANY 
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG SRN CA...LIMITED 
MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO NW AZ THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST 
HAS THE TRENDS COVERED WELL. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD 
ONLY SEE SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NOT MUCH WIND. LATEST AVN NUMERICAL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING THURSDAY AND ONLY 
2-3 DEGREES OF COOLING OF FRIDAY. NGM GUIDANCE ABSENT FOR NOW ON 
LOCAL SYSTEM. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

JGA

.LAS...NONE.