000 FXUS63 KICT 012020 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 320 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2000 FCST FOCUS REMAINS ON HEAT AND IMPACT OF WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH ON KS WX INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL FOLLOW AN ETA/AVN DEPICTION OF WX NEXT 72 HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WITH THE MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH UPPER LOW NOW STATIONARY ACROSS THE SE US. MEANWHILE...AT 850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK WITH TRUE FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...WEAK SHALLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM A GREAT BEND TO WICHITA TO NEAR EMPORIA LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILERS AND AM UPPER AIR WOULD ARGUE THAT THIS FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND. AS FOR ANY STORM CHCS...DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT AM LEANING TOWARD KEEPING ALL AREAS DRY TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE LOWS. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ACROSS CALIF AT THIS TIME WILL SHEAR INTO THROUGH THE ROCKIES TOMORROW LOWERING SFC PRESSURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PRODUCING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY. WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS ALL AREAS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...CALIF WAVE WILL SHEAR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRAGGING A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE STATE BY EARLY SUNDAY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY SAT NIGHT FOR CENTRAL KS FOR NOW BUT APPEARS THAT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC-850 TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH MODEST 25-30KT LLJ COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ON SUNDAY...FEEL THAT WITH WEAK COOL FRONT IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH FCST VORT MAX TO MOVE INTO NEB ALONG WITH UPPER DIV AND AFTERNOON HEATING THAT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CERTAINLY APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. SLIGHT CHC WORDING LOOKS GOOD FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL FOR NOW SINCE EXACT POSITION OF BOUNDARY REMAINS IN QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF A SLOWER MOVEMENT AND HENCE WARMER TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS WHERE HIGHS IN THE 100S WILL CONTINUE TO BE FCST. WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY FOR CENTRAL KS KEEPING FCST MAX TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID 90S. EXTENDED...AVN FCSTS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS NEB SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS KS. AGREE WITH TOP THAT 54-60HR AVN VORT ACROSS NEB MAY BE SPURIOUS AND PRECIP MAY BE OVERDONE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. MEANWHILE...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY COME EARLY MONDAY IS LOW. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND EXTENT OF PRECIP...IF ANY WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND ANY SHALLOW COOL AIR INTRUSION COME MONDAY. AGAIN...BASED UPON TODAY WHERE CENTRAL KS IS STRUGGLING TO WARM...NEXT BOUNDARY COULD HAVE A SIMILAR IMPACT ON TEMPS BRINGING THE OUTSIDE CHC OF RELIEF FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FOR TUES-THUR WILL CONT WITH HOT TEMPS/MUCH ABOVE MRF NUMBERS SINCE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND STILL DO NOT BUY INTO THE IDEA OF ANY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT PROVIDING RELIEF WEDS AND FEEL THAT NORTH/SOUTH SFC TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING BUT FILLING LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS COME THURS...STAY TUNED. RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY 2ND 3RD ICT 106/1939 108/1947 CNU 103/1954 102/1954 SLN 105/1954 108/1947 RSL 104/1978 104/1954 FCSTID = 11/OMITT ICT 70 106 73 103 / 0 0 0 20 HUT 69 105 73 101 / 0 0 0 20 EWK 70 106 73 102 / 0 0 0 20 EQA 70 106 73 105 / 0 0 0 20 WLD 70 107 73 105 / 0 0 0 20 RSL 68 102 69 96 / 0 0 0 20 GBD 68 102 69 97 / 0 0 0 20 SLN 68 106 69 96 / 0 0 0 20 MPR 68 106 69 100 / 0 0 0 20 CF7V 70 105 70 103 / 0 0 0 10 CNU 70 105 70 103 / 0 0 0 10 K88 70 105 70 103 / 0 0 0 10 .ICT...NONE.