375 
FXUS61 KBOX 011934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2000

DISC:  PLENTY OF SHOWERS CROPPING UP OVER ERN NYS AS EXPECTED IN
RESPONSE TO VORT LOBE.  ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO WORK ITS WAY
EAST INTO OUR ZONES TONIGHT.

CF EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY DOWN THROUGH NNE TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA.  WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL
SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...LIKELY HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FRONT AND LOCATION/INTENSITY OF
PCPN.  LEANING MORE TOWARD AVN/NGM SOLN WITH GREATER PCPN OVER OUR
CWA TONIGHT AND SAT AND MOVEMENT OF FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.  WITH PW/S
BETWEEN 1.6 ADN 2.0 OVER THE CWA...NOT BUYING LIMITED PCPN SUGGESTED
BY ETA.  WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SHOWERS IN
WRN ZONES TONIGHT...ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SAT...BUT NO
MENTION ATTM.  DEPENDING ON TIMING OF WAVES...FRONT SHOULD SETTLE
INTO NE ZONES ON SUN...THEN PASS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA IN EARNEST SUN
NIGHT AND MON WITH TD/S SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.

OVERALL...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS.  LIKELY POPS TONIGHT AND SAT...CHC FROM
THAT POINT ON.  PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY AT NIGHT...ESP CC AND
ISLANDS AND FOR SAT NIGHT OVER NE ZONES AS FRONT SLIPS S AND FLOW
TURNS TO ENE.

GENERAL TSTM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH SVR VERY
UNLIKELY.  MAINLY EXPECTING HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS.

MARINE:  GENERALLY QUIET.

.BOX...NONE.

DCY