744 
FXUS63 KGLD 192029
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 PM MDT SAT AUG 19 2000

PROBLEM FOR THIS PACKAGE IS POPS IN PERIODS 1...3...4...AND 5...THEN
TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED.

PREFER ETA A LITTLE MORE THAN OTHER DOMESTIC PROGS BASED ON BETTER
HEIGHT INITIALIZATION...TEMPS...AND 6 HOUR PROG COMPARISON WITH
SATELLITE.

GIVEN PRESENT POSITION OF SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT...WILL
CARRY A 30 POP ONLY FOR MY TWO EASTERNMOST COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS REMAIN A BIT LOWER THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED LATELY THROUGH
PERIOD 5 WITH WESTERLIES ACROSS NEBRASKA.  PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CWFA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY AS FAR AS HALFWAY ACROSS CWFA.  SHORTWAVES COMING ACROSS
SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF RESULTS FROM 700 MB AND 850 MB TEMP PROGS...
WITH ONLY 850 MB TEMPS USED WHEN 850 TO 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT.  MIN TEMPS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN 12Z 2 METER
TEMP AND DEWPOINT PROGS.

IN THE EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON REBUILDING THE RIDGE WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 5940 METERS.  PROBABLY AROUND 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
MRF BIAS OF HAVING HEIGHTS TOO HIGH LATELY.  WILL WORD EXTENDED AS
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AS SOME STORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA DAYS 4 AND 5 AS RIDGE AXIS
SLIDE NORTHWARD TO KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND EXPOSES THAT AREA TO
WEAK INFLUENCE FROM REMNANTS OF EASTERLY WAVES.

.GLD...NONE.

ENTWISTLE