057 
FXUS63 KIND 160815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST WED AUG 16 2000

PROB OF THE DAY WL BE PRECIP CVRG ON THU AS MCS DIVES SE ACRS THE FA
ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN APRCHG WARM FNT. PLACEMENT OF THIS
WARM FNT WL BE KEY IN FORECASTING POPS ACRS THE FA.

LATEST SFC ANLYS HAD A CD FNT JUST N OF A DAY-IND-STL LINE WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 60S ACRS NRN IN AND 50S ACRS NRN IL. MID 70 DEW PTS WERE
POOLED ALONG THE FNT. IR SAT LOOP WAS SHOWING DISSIPATING MID LVL
DECK ACRS NRN IN AND NRN IL WITH RADAR ECHOES LACKING MAINLY DUE TO
LACK OF MOIST AND ONLY WK LOW LVL CNVRG. MODEL TIME SECS INDICATE DRY
COLUMN TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS INDICATING NO CU. ALL IN
ALL...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH FULL SS AND LESS HUMID CONDS AS
NE FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR AS MODELS AGREE ON PUSHING THE CD FNT
INTO NRN TN BY THIS EVE. HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACRS THE GT LKS TNGT
WHICH WL ALLOW FOR A CLR START TO THE EVE. HOWEVER...MODEL TIME SECS
START BRINGING IN HIGH LVL MOIST OVRNGT AHEAD OF APRCHG WARM FNT AND
UPR LVL WV.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON MAIN FEATURES THAT WL BRING PRECIP TO
THE AREA ON THU BUT DO DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THEIR RESULTANT QPF FIELDS.
MODELS DROP CD FNT INTO NRN TN BY THIS EVE WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE
SETTLING ACRS. MEANWHILE...S/W DROPS SE ACRS THE GT LKS TNGT IN THE
FAST NW FLOW WHICH WL HELP TO DRAW MOIST NEWD AND BRING WRN END OF
THE FNT BACK TO THE NE AS A WARM FNT. MODELS MOVE THE WARM FNT FM IA
TO SRN IL BY THU MRNG AND THEN PLACE IT ACRS SWRN PARTS OF THE FA THU
AFT AS A SFC WV MOVES ACRS CNTRL IL. 45 KT LOW LVL JET PUNCHING ACRS
THE WARM FNT INTO NRN IA/SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO DVLP TNGT WITH
THICKNESS FIELDS BRINGING IT SE ACRS NRN IL AND INTO NWRN PARTS OF
THE FA BY THU MRNG. ETA/AVN QPF FIELDS AGREE AND SPREAD PRECIP ACRS
MAINLY NERN THIRD OF THE FA ON THU. NGM...ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPS
ADDITIONAL BIG QPF FIELD FURTHER SW ACRS SWRN IN AND WRN KY AHEAD OF
THE CD FNT. ALTHOUGH POPS LOOK OK ACRS SWRN PART OF THE FA ON
THU...AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WARM H7 TEMPS OF AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS THERE SHOULD TEND TO KEEP ACTIVITY MORE SCT THAN ACRS
NERN ZONES. INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW -5 LIS 2500 CAPES POOLED ALONG
AND TO THE NE OF THE WARM FNT BY THU AFT. SO WITH WARM FNT INVOF
PROVIDING LOW LVL CNVRG AND LOW LVL JET NOSING ACRS COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOIST POOLING...REDEVLOPMENT IS LIKELY ACRS NERN HALF
OF THE FA AFT THE INITIAL MCS BEGINS TO DIE OUT.

EXTENDED PD TO START OUT WET AS SFC LOW PRES SLIDES ACRS XTRM SRN
PARTS OF THE FA THU NGT AND INTO XTRM SRN OH BY FRI MRNG. IN
ADDITION...SHARP S/W DROPS SE ACRS THE LWR GT LKS ON FRI. BEST COMBO
OF MOIST AND LIFT SHIFT SE INTO SRN OH/NRN KY BY FRI MRNG...SO PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF FA BY FRI AFT. CANADIEN HIGH PRES FOLLOWS WITH DRY
COLUMN TO PROVIDE A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND FCST.

PREFER WARMER FAN NUMBERS THIS TIME AROUND AS LOW LVL NGM TEMP PROGS
LOOK WAY TOO COOL ESP ON THU CONSIDERING THE NICE WAA PATTERN.

.IND...NONE.
KOCH