148 
FXUS64 KLCH 151912 COR
AFDLCH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
210 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2000

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CONTINUING
TO MOVE WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. EFFECTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS BUOY 42035 IS NOW DOWN TO A SE WIND 8G10KT
WITH SEAS 4 FT. TIDES ARE NO LONGER A THREAT. LATEST VIS IMAGERY
SHOWS FAIR WX CU OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BUILDUPS TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LFT REGION.

AFTER BERYL..THINGS WILL RETURN TO MORE OF THE DOG DAYS OF AUGUST
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...VERY LITTLE
PREVAILING WINDS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID TO UPPER HIGH...WHICH STEERED BERYL TO
MEXICO...WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AND BUILD EAST...KEEPING THE AREA IN
A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WELL FOR WED AND THU...WITH A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE EAST...PER ETA. IN FACT...THE MESOETA TRIES TO
BUILD A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX (PER INCREASED RH AND UPWARD VVS) OVER
MS LATE WED NIGHT AND ROARS IT ACROSS SE LA AND INTO LFT REGION BY
EARLY THU MORNING ALONG THE NE FLOW. THIS IS A BIT TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PINPOINT SUCH SMALL SCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THESE...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO PINPOINT THIS. WILL KEEP
20% POP SOUTHERN ZONES WED AND THU DAY...WITH LINGERING 10% POP FOR
EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY...AND ONLY 10% FOR NORTHERN ZONES.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE MIDWEST...KEEPING OUR
AREA IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NOW ON A HISTORY NOTE. ON THIS DATE IN 1985...THE EYE OF HURRICANE
DANNY MADE LANDFALL ON THE VERMILION/CAMERON PARISH AREA BETWEEN 10
AND 11 AM. IT HAD AN EYE DIAMETER OF 40-50 NAUTICAL MILES AT THE
TIME OF LANDFALL WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 MPH...WHICH WAS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

TODAY...THERE ARE NO OTHER IMMEDIATE THREATS FROM THE TROPICS.

8

.LCH...NONE.
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AEX 73/96/73/96 1101
BPT 75/95/76/95 1212
LCH 74/95/75/95 1212
LFT 74/94/75/95 1212