000 
FXUS65 KCYS 150838
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
240 AM MDT TUE AUG 15 2000

MSTR CONTS OVER AREA BUT ATTM APPRS TO BE RTHR HI BASED ABV 500 MB.
WK FTR INDCTD BY MDLS OVER ERN UT FCST TO LIFT NEWD THEN EWD ACRS 
AREA LTR TDA.  BTR MSTR UPSTRM ON GJT SNDG...AND MDLS ALSO INCRS PW 
VALUES OVER ERN CWA TDA AS LOW/MID LVL FLOW RMNS SRLY.  BEST 
INSTBLTY IN PNHNDL DUE TO HIGHER DEWPTS.  GOOD 700 THETA-E RDG ALSO
BLDS ACRS REGION...ALL POINTING TO AN INCRS IN POPS.  CURRNT FCST
AND GNDNC HAVE SCT CVRG...WHICH LOOKS GOOD.  POTENTIAL PBLM COULD BE 
THAT WE CLOUD UP TOO QUICK AND SHUT OFF GOOD HTG...WITH FEWER TSTMS 
DVLPG.  AS FTR MOVES ACRS AREA LTR TNGT...SHLD SEE DCRS IN CLDS AS
FLOW ALFT BCMS LTL MORE WSTRLY.  ANTHR S/WV TROF MOVG UP AND OVER 
RDG FRTHR N ACRS MT LOOKS LIKE IT MERGES/PICKS UP SRN FTR...WITH
A DECENT 700 S/WV TROF MOVG INTO WRN DAKS BY 12Z WED.  LESS MSTR AND 
DWNSLP W WNDS POINT TO FEWER TSTMS ON WED...ALONG WITH HOTTER TMPS 
THAN TDA.  SFC FNT ASSOCD WITH NRN S/WV DROPS INTO AREA WED AFTN...
WITH COOLER AIR SPILLG IN WED NGT.  AVN FCSTS THUR COOLER WITH A 
DECENT AMT OF MSTR/INSTBLTY ARND.  GNDNC GNRLY OK...BUMPED UP TMPS A 
BIT..$.ESPCLY WED.

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

JAD