000 
FXUS63 KTOP 150733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
233 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2000

...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH APPROACHING 
FRONT...

ETA/NGM/AVN ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FRONT TO THE KANSAS 
NEBRASKA BORDER BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE STALLING IT OUT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING ACROSS NORTHEAST 
KANSAS IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE SEEN ON FAIRBURY 
PROFILER HODOGRAPH.  WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO LINGER UNTIL MID 
MORNING...AND THEN DISSIPATE AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL CAPPED AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RUNNING 
AROUND -200 J/KG.  700-300 MB AND 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE 
FIELDS ONLY SHOW WEAK LIFT ALONG THE FRONT...SO THINK CAP WILL HOLD 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO 
COME AFTER DARK AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS.  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DROPS TO A BREAKABLE -50 TO -100 J/KG RANGE BY 
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE ETA SHOWING STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD 
OF THE BOUNDARY.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY 
EVENING...BUT WILL INTRODUCE POPS TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA..i.TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON 
THE FIERY SIDE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLD IN 
THE MID 20S...SO WILL SIDE WITH PERSISTENCE AND GO ABOVE NGM/FWC AND 
AVN/FAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

.TOP...NONE.

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