089 
FXUS66 KMTR 142204
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
300 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000

CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND.
AS OF 2PM...MOST LOCATIONS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE
SAME TIME YESTERDAY...WITH THE LARGEST INCREASE THE 6F REPORTED BY
SAN RAFAEL.  OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS SHOW INCREASING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND THUS THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW WITH THE
INVERSION ITSELF NEAR OR AT THE SURFACE.  THUS EXPECT ONLY VERY
LIMITED MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...THOUGH SHALLOWNESS OF
MARINE LAYER MAY RESULT IN WHATEVER STRATUS DOES FORM OCCURRING AS
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.  THE 12Z AND 18Z MESOETA RUNS INCREASE THE 850 MB
TEMP A COUPLE OF DEGREES C THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON...WHILE THE AVN
KEEPS THE 850 TEMP ABOUT CONSTANT.  BOTH MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD
OF TIME.  NET RESULT IS EXPECTATION OF A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF
WARMING TUESDAY INLAND...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO BY THE COAST.

MORE MODEST FURTHER INCREASE IN BOTH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WARMTH OF AIR
MASS ARE PROJECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE REGIONAL SURFACE PRESSURE
AND WIND PATTERNS STILL STAYING ABOUT THE SAME.  HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN
TEMPS UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES INLAND FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE EAST BAY THEN EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CENTURY MARK.  AM MORE CAUTIOUS WITH TEMPS NEAR THE COAST AS
SOMETIMES INITIAL COASTAL COOLING WITH THE SORT OF CHANGE PRESENTLY
PROJECTED IN THE LONGER TERM OCCURS A BIT SOONER THAN INITIALLY
INDICATED BY THE MODELS.  BUT FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY KEEP COASTAL
TEMPS WED ABOUT WHERE THEYRE EXPECTED TO BE ON TUES.

IN THE LONGER TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON SIGNIFICANT COOLING
OF AIR MASS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
THE WEST COAST.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN THE
COASTAL STRATUS AND A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...LATER IN THE WEEK.  POPS ZERO.  BLIER

.SFO...TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
                    AND NRN SFO BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.