920 
FXUS65 KTWC 140908
AFDTUS

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON AUG 14 2000

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING A 
MONSOONAL FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE SAME DISTURBANCE WHICH 
GENERATED SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST 
ARIZONA ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEARBY TODAY. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR 
TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM NEW MEXICO COULD ALSO KEEP THE STORMS 
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE 
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE 
THE AREA BY LATE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ALMOST OVER IN SOUTHEAST 
ARIZONA AS OF 2 AM. WILL SEE A BREAK DURING THE MOST OF THE MORNING. 
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE 5 AM TUCSON SOUNDING HAS TO 
OFFER...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE 5 PM SOUNDING WAS CONTAMINATED BY 
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. STILL HAVE A DISTINCT MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN FAR 
EASTERN ARIZONA WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE LATER TODAY IN THAT 
VICINITY. ALSO HAVE A STRONGER EAST FLOW ALOFT WHICH MIGHT BRING THE 
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST AND LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE. LAST BUT NOT LEAST 
IS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BORDER WHICH MAY 
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AGREE WITH THE GRADUAL DRYING TREND 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THROUGH DAY 3 OF THE EXTENDED AND 
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE. WILL ALSO NOT 
CHANGE DAYS 4 AND 5 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH TWO TROPICAL 
SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY BRINGING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE DESERT 
SOUTHWEST.     

OKULSKI

.TWC...NONE.